Spaniards are increasingly optimistic, although they remain distrustful of pensions and public institutions

Spaniards’ confidence in the socio-political landscape is growing, although they have yet to cross the turning point with regard to certain areas, such as housing or education. That is one of the main conclusions that can be drawn from the fourth edition of the ESADE – Obra Social ”la Caixa” Social Confidence Index, prepared with the collaboration of the Agbar Foundation and Aquae Foundation, which, in September 2015, stood at 86.6 out of 200.

The index measures both collective and individual social confidence on a scale of 0 to 200, using the arithmetic mean of the scores respondents give to both their confidence in the present and their future expectations. These indicators, which, in the fourth edition, were 83.0 out of 200 and 90.2 out of 200 respectively, reflect aggregate confidence, as measured by nine specific social indicators: housing, the job market, healthcare, education, social benefits, pensions, political institutions, economic and business institutions, and the media.

Growing confidence in the job market

In September 2015, the Social Confidence Index stood at 86.6 out of 200, the average of respondents’ confidence in the present landscape (83.0 out of 200) and their future expectations (90.2 out of 200).

Of the areas looked at in September 2015, the one to generate the greatest confidence was the job market, with a score of 111.3 out of 200 (up from second place in March 2015, when it stood at 106.7 out of 200). It was followed by the media, with a score of 104 out of 200, and housing, with a score of 100.8 out of 200. In contrast, those inspiring the least confidence amongst respondents were social benefits, with a score of 70.2 out of 200, and political institutions, with a score of 69.4 out of 200.

Social benefits and education, the indices with the greatest expectations of improvement

A breakdown of the results of the latest edition by present and future scores shows that all indicators increased when projected several months into the future, except for housing. In that area, the present confidence level of 109.6 out of 200 dropped 17 points to 92 out of 200 when respondents were asked about their expectations for the future. The indices showing the greatest increase between present and future were education, which climbed from 81.8 out of 200 (present) to 96.86 out of 200 (future expectations), and social benefits, which increased from 62.4 out of 200 (present) to 70.1 out of 200 (future expectations).

Respondents were less optimistic with regard to pensions, the present and future indices for which were separated by an increase of barely three points; economic and business institutions, which showed an increase of eight points; and healthcare, with a nine-point difference between how respondents view it now and what they expect to see in future.

Who places most confidence in what?

The scores given to each indicator, both with regard to the present scenario and future expectations, were calculated based on an analysis of respondents’ answers to different questions, which, in turn, made it possible to identify different levels of confidence depending on respondents’ gender, age, political ideology, employment status, income level, and education:

1. Job market (111.3 out of 200): Men were more confident than women, although both groups had similar expectations for the future. By age group, the youngest respondents were the most confident. In terms of political ideology, respondents who self-identified as centrist or left-wing scored over 100 points. With regard to income level and employment status, confidence increased in relation to the security of the respondent’s situation.

2. Media (104 out of 200): A change was seen with regard to future expectations depending on the respondents’ ideology: those who considered themselves to be centrist showed the greatest confidence. Trends remained unchanged for the rest of the segments; women (significantly more than men) and young people were the most confident, whilst those with the highest incomes and education levels were the least.

3. Housing (100.8 out of 200): Lost confidence began to rebound amongst men, but future expectations remained low for those over the age of 50 and respondents who positioned themselves on the left side of the ideological spectrum. As with the job market, respondents who were currently employed and those with higher incomes were more confident than the rest.

4. Education (89.3 out of 200): Although this is one of the areas in which the scores for both the present and future improved, confidence remained low amongst those segments with higher purchasing power, more education, and left-leaning ideologies. In terms of age, in stark contrast with the trend observed for the previous areas, the older the respondent, the more confidence was shown in education.

5. Healthcare (87.3 out of 200): Seniors were once again the segment to show the greatest confidence, as opposed to respondents who positioned themselves on the left and respondents who were currently employed, who fell short of the turning point of 100. In terms of income level, household income did not influence the degree of confidence.

6. Economic and business institutions (74.7 out of 200): Although the general confidence index improved in this area, it still fell short of the point of equilibrium. Expectations did not vary by gender or education, but differences were found depending on ideology (with the left showing less confidence than the right) and age (students and pensioners were the most confident).

7. Pensions (72.3 out of 200): This was the indicator to show the least change with regard to previous editions, in terms of both the overall degree of confidence and that recorded by segment. People over the age of 65 and homemakers showed the most confidence in the security of their pensions, whilst those with the highest levels of education showed the least.

8. Social benefits (70.2 out of 200): A striking gap was found in this area between the present confidence and future expectations of pensioners and between the future expectations of respondents with no education and all the rest.

9. Political institutions (69.4 out of 200): For the first time, the confidence indices found for segments with different ideological orientations were similar. The same cannot be said with regard to gender or age. In this regard, men and the youngest respondents were less confident.

Improving confidence once again

The ESADE – Obra Social ”la Caixa” Social Confidence Index was launched in February 2014 with the aim of being published twice a year. Following the initial pilot experience, in September 2014, a second survey was conducted using the final variables. The index recorded in the first survey was 53 out of 200, almost 20 points less than that recorded six months later in September 2014, by which time it had risen to 72.3 out of 200. By March 2015, the index had climbed to 82.3 out of 200 and, by September 2015, to 86 out of 200.

Putting aside the scores for present and future expectations from previous surveys, one can find significant changes in the confidence index by area. In this regard, it is worth noting that the score given to political institutions, which in February 2014 stood at 34.4 out of 200, had climbed almost 17 points by September 2014 and an additional 18 points by September 2015 (to 69.4 out of 200). Similar gains can be seen in the areas of social benefits (from 36.5 out of 200 to 50.7 out of 200, then onto 61.4 out of 200, and, finally, the current score of 70.2 out of 200). Nevertheless, none of the indices saw the increase registered by that for employment, which climbed from 74.8 out of 200 in February 2014 to 111.3 out of 200 in September 2015.