Sir Michael Leigh, at ESADE: The US Presidential election "could yet take an unexpected turn"

At the most recent edition of ESADE’s Big Challenges social debate series, focused on the possible scenarios that Europe could expect from the next US Presidency, Sir Michael Leigh, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, observed: “The campaign of the Democratic candidate for President of the United States, Hillary Clinton, could still receive new offensives”, before adding that the US Presidential election “could yet take an unexpected turn”. José María de Areilza, Professor at ESADE Law School, expressed his agreement with Leigh on this point, adding: “The candidacy of Hillary Clinton is vulnerable, so we should remain alert.”

“This year’s US Presidential elections are taking place under exceptional circumstances for both the United States and Europe. Political sentiment is polarised between two candidates that embody very different leadership styles,” observed Leigh. “Inequality in developed societies has contributed to US citizens’ rejection of internationalisation, globalisation, free trade and immigration. Trump has managed to embody popular anti-Washington sentiment by presenting himself as an alternative, someone who represents those who don’t have a voice in the globalisation process.” Meanwhile, Leigh explained, Hillary Clinton’s campaign has “sought to build the image of a strong candidate, despite the attacks she has received” and “replaced the ‘hard power’ vs. ‘soft power’ dichotomy with the concept of ‘smart power’, with an eye to connecting with minorities and young voters.”

“Europe is facing multiple crises that exacerbate one another: a eurozone that has been weakened by Euro-scepticism and economic stagnation; a migrant crisis in the Mediterranean; armed conflicts in Russia and Ukraine, as well as in Syria; and the threat of terrorism, to mention just a few,” commented Leigh. “We are looking at the rise of populisims and the fragmentation of our political systems,” he added, before noting that an event like Brexit can contribute to “the exacerbation of some of these crises in Europe”.

What are the implications for Europe?

With regard to Europe, one of the most notable differences between the two candidates is perhaps “the policy that they would adopt towards Russia”, according to Prof. Areilza. “Trump is a Putin sympathiser, whereas Hillary would probably take a harder stance and demand the support of the NATO allies.” On the issue of defence, however, the one point of agreement between the candidates is “their stance on the European countries’ commitment to NATO’s common objectives, under which they must invest 2% of their GDP in defence, as set out in the alliance’s agreements,” explained Prof. Areilza. “The European Union recently presented a common defence project, which is difficult to put together because it’s an area that has traditionally been under the purview of each state’s interior ministry.”

“A Donald Trump victory would have an influence on the presidential elections scheduled for 2017 in some European countries and fuel the populism boom, since there are parallels in his programmes,” commented Leigh. “One possible horizon would be the disintegration of the European Union,” he argued. Although he acknowledged that such a disintegration “would not be imminent,” Leigh suggested that “we should take this danger into consideration”.