Inflation Target (CPI)
Given the current situation of the Spanish economy, characterized by a significant rise in inflation, the 'Inflation Target' has been included, which focuses on two fundamental data series that describe inflation: the annual variation of the general Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the annual variation of the underlying CPI (the general index without unprocessed food and energy products).
Inflation Target Data
The forecasts studied by Diana Esade are those set out by Funcas in its September panel from the year before the study.
The “real CPI” is the average annual rate of the Consumer Price Index published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) for the year for which the forecasts were made.
Each edition of the Esade Inflation Diana also analyzes:
The degree of deviation from the current year's forecast.
The hit ranking of the current year's forecasts and their comparison with the previous one.
The historical evolution of the average of the global deviation of the forecasts.
Calculation of the penalized difference (MSE or mean square error) for each organization that identifies the most accurate prediction models over time.
Calculation of the alpha or directional bias of each organization. This is used to analyze prediction errors over time and identify in which direction they consistently lean.
Evolution vs Deviation
The average deviation is the average deviation of all institutions for the corresponding year.
Forecast vs Reality by institutions
Penalized Difference
For the first time the Esade Target calculates the penalized difference (MSE or mean square error) for each organization that identifies the most accurate prediction models over time.
Directional Bias
For the first time the Esade Target calculates the directional bias of each organization. This is used to analyze prediction errors over time and identify in which direction they consistently lean.