Economic Target (GDP)
In this edition of the Economic Target of Esade we analyze the growth forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product that the institutions of the Funcas Panel will carry out during September 2023 and compare them with the growth of the real economy registered by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) to 2024. The position occupied by each institution is donated by the wide deviation in absolute terms (percentage points).
Economic Target Data (GDP)
The forecasts studied by Diana Esade are those set out by Funcas in its September panel from the year before the study.
“Real GDP” refers to the gross domestic product published by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics (INE) in January for the previous year. Data for the period 2010-2023 was updated in September 2024 by the INE in its latest review.
Each edition of the Esade Economic Diana also analyzes:
The degree of deviation from the current year's forecast.
The hit ranking of the current year's forecasts and their comparison with the previous one.
The historical evolution of the average of the global deviation of the forecasts.
Calculation of the penalized difference (MSE or mean square error) for each organization that identifies the most accurate prediction models over time.
Calculation of the alpha or directional bias of each organization. This is used to analyze prediction errors over time and identify in which direction they consistently lean.
Evolution vs. Deviation
The average deviation is the average deviation of all institutions for the corresponding year.
Forecast vs. Reality by institutions
Penalized Difference
For the first time the Esade Target calculates the penalized difference (MSE or mean square error) for each organization that identifies the most accurate prediction models over time.
Directional Bias
For the first time the Esade Target calculates the directional bias of each organization. This is used to analyze prediction errors over time and identify in which direction they consistently lean.