Representatives from Spanish Government and Europe call for dialogue and coordinated response for EU-Sahel relations
The European Union needs a new type of dialogue with countries in Sahel and greater coordination at a time when that region is marked by instability and the presence of other actors including Russia and China, according to the EsadeGeo report El Sahel: presente y escenarios futuros para la acción exterior de España y la UE (Sahel: Present and future scenarios of Spanish and EU external action) and also the participants in the conference held on Wednesday on the Esade campus in Madrid.
“Events in the Sahel region impact our security immensely,” said Diego Martínez Belío, secretary of State for Foreign and Global Affairs in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation. Belío pointed out that more than 50% of global terrorism happens in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso and asked for the EU to have a coordinated presence in the region, to listen and promote stability.
“Unless Europe is coordinated, we’ll be unable to exert any influence,” agreed João Cravinho, the EU special representative for the Sahel region. The EU diplomat believes that another sort of dialogue with the nations in this region of Africa is needed, a dialogue based on listening and clearly explaining Europe’s interests in the area, including working with countries of origin on the socioeconomic circumstances that drive young people to emigrate.
The presence of the EU: more than security
According to the report by EsadeGeo, one of the main unknown quantities in this region concerns the future international presence following the departure of France, the EU and the United Nations. Russia’s stance, with military forces in the area, is one alternative in terms of security, it points out, although this has apparently not helped improve the situation so far.
The study emphasizes that the EU must reconsider its relationship with Sahel, taking into account that its interventions in the region were not well received by the population, and highlights the need to coordinate EU efforts well and avoid a single Member State taking the lead.
The authors recommend that the EU and Spain maintain their presence but with an approach that extends beyond security and includes agriculture, education and health, and bolsters state structures. It must also be based on dialogue with governments, local populations, the private sector and regional associations.
Among the factors of uncertainty in the region, researchers highlight the possible growth of armed groups, largely dependent on the future of Burkina Faso whose State is on the verge of collapse. They also warn that extreme weather, exacerbated by the impact of climate change, threatens to change the living conditions of Sahel communities and migration routes and seasons.
The talk, held on the occasion of the publication of the report, was chaired by Juan Moscoso del Prado, senior fellow at EsadeGeo. The event was closed by Javier Solana, president of EsadeGeo, who called for Europe to assume its responsibility in Africa and not forget it in these times of global geopolitical and geoeconomic complications around the globe. “The EU must bear in mind not only trade issues with the United States, but also what is happening in Africa and how we could help,” he concluded.
Possible scenarios for relations with Sahel in 2030
Against a highly volatile backdrop, the report outlines four possible scenarios for 2030. The first is an unstable landscape in which national governments ask the EU for more intervention along the lines of previous occasions, i.e., providing advice and training for armed forces, but no weapon supplies or direct involvement in conflicts.
In the second scenario, also characterized by instability, the Sahel countries would continue to enter into agreements with non-Western powers, with Russia on the front line of regional conflicts. In this scenario, the European Union would not be welcome in the area and would maintain its presence in the neighboring States to the north of the Sahara and those with access to the Gulf of Guinea.
The third hypothesis entails a stable scenario with many international actors involved in rebuilding the region. One such actor would be the EU, providing peacekeeping operations and projects linked to education, finding jobs for young people, and training civil servants.
The fourth scenario, another stable landscape, would feature considerable Russian influence which would extend to the awarding of reconstruction projects and would lead to growing trade reliance. China, meanwhile, would continue to be a business and economic partner, and would play a decisive role in building infrastructures. In this scenario, the EU would lose all its influence, and its action would be limited to neighborhood policy.
