Is Political Multi-Polarisation Making the World More Balanced?

What are the main outcomes and implications of the 19th Party Congress, both for China and the world?

The Chinese Communist Party Congress lays out all the major guidelines and objectives for China every five years and focuses mainly on domestic politics. However, since Chinese domestic politics has global implications, many people attribute foreign policy significance to the congress. Among these implications is the party’s plan to offer a new path for developing countries to advance their economies while maintaining independence. The party has also indicated that it wants to offer Chinese wisdom and a Chinese approach to find solutions to the problems facing mankind.

An initial and important outcome of the 19th Party Congress is that Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in A New Era was enshrined in the party’s charter. The congress was held after Xi Jinping established his position in the party in a way that can only be compared with that of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. Xi will play a crucial role in the future of Chinese politics.  

Secondly, the congress laid out a two-step economic development plan for China, mirroring Deng Xiaoping’s own Chinese economic development plan. If the new plan comes to fruition, China will have developed into a moderately prosperous country by 2021, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. And by 2049, which will mark the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, China will have achieved modernization and become a modern socialist country. These are known as the two “centennial goals”.

Thirdly, the party congress made clear that the defining feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics is the leadership of the Communist Party of China, and this applies in all domains and in every part of the country.

Fourthly, the congress highlighted that, as a response to the growing demand of people for better lives, China intends to build and maintain a balanced economic development.

At next year’s National People’s Congress, all the guidelines provided by the party congress will be translated into state policy. Thus, although there are few new elements in the party’s foreign policy statements, progress will gradually be revealed in Chinese state policy.

What is Xi Jinping’s view on the current global governance system and what role is it pursuing?

Xi Jinping recognises that China benefits from the current international system. China does not want to challenge or replace it. Many people might think, for example, that the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is challenging the existing global financial governance system. However, the Chinese government has clearly stated that it will follow international law and norms in running the new institution. China does see, nevertheless, that there are some unfair conditions and drawbacks in the global governance system, and therefore wants to guide its improvement.

How does the Chinese Communist Party perceive recent world developments, including the policies of Donald Trump?

The Chinese government always emphasizes that the world is undergoing major transformations and adjustments, but peace and development remain the top priorities. The 19th Party Congress labelled global multi-polarity, economic globalization, IT application, and cultural diversity as the major recent trends in the international system. Whereas the West speaks of a balance of power becoming destabilised, the Chinese government considers that international forces are becoming more balanced. China is thus seen to be at a point of historic opportunity, where it can restore its greatness and return to its rightful position in the world.

The Chinese government is cautious not to discuss political figures such as Donald Trump or Theresa May by name. They are leaders with whom China wants to develop a good relationship. However, the government controls the media and sponsors scholars, who have held lively discussions on the downsides of Western democracies, the split between elites and grassroots, and the rise of populist movements in Europe and America. These discussions have highlighted the dysfunctionality of the Western political system in contrast to the functionality and power of the Chinese government, implying the superiority of the Chinese model.  

How is Chinese foreign policy evolving? How is this affected by economic interdependence?

The main themes and principles of Chinese foreign policy remain unchanged. China’s principle of peaceful coexistence means not interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. However, as it rises, China’s interests are becoming global. To protect these interests, China has gradually begun to adjust, through incremental changes, the layout and structure of several specific issues. A clear example of this is how China is now very proud to say that it is the biggest contributor of UN peacekeeping personnel among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, whereas in the past it took pride in never having deployed a single soldier on foreign soil.

China’s increasing interest in global issues results in part from economic interdependence between China and the rest of the world, especially the West. This interdependence is so strong that it has become a major political and economic stabiliser in bilateral relations. Therefore, we need not worry too much about the likelihood of conflict.

What are the main goals of the Belt and Road Initiative and how is it progressing? What are the risks and challenges?

There are many different understandings of the Belt and Road Initiative – even among Chinese leaders. My understanding is that its main purpose is to channel overproduction in China to Central Asia and neighbouring countries. Aside from that, one of the most ambitious interpretations I have heard is that the initiative is an opportunity for China to set Chinese international standards, similarly to how the West laid out all the legal, institutional, and infrastructural standards, rules, and norms in today’s international system. Some are also saying that the B&R Initiative is a platform for the provision of global public goods.

Given that Xi Jinping initiated this idea, one should understand why it has become a kind of big basket for everybody to jump into. Any project using the framework of the B&R Initiative is more likely to receive government support.

I think that one of the main issues with the initiative is that its risks have not been discussed openly in China, where most articles and discussions focus on its promising aspects. If we are not aware of the risks, we will not be able to address their possible consequences properly. Among these risks, I would highlight two: the existence of conflictive geographical areas within the B&R routes; and the potential for confrontation with reluctant neighbours.

The route drawn by the Chinese government includes territories that are currently in political turmoil, such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. The project aims to build a road, railway, and new infrastructure in the area. But China is unwilling to send troops to maintain peace and stability in these conflictive countries. How is the B&R Initiative supposed to run through those places? Will the infrastructure be exposed to terrorist threats?

There is also a risk of confrontation with neighbouring countries who are reluctant to cooperate or who simply pay lip service to their commitment to the initiative. For instance, if you look at the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route, the South China Sea is currently in dispute between China and its neighbours. What would the consequences be for this route if the disputes continue to flare and relations between China and other claimants remain conflictual? Or take Russia, for example: while it has not opposed the project publicly, it is known that the Kremlin has different dreams about Central Asia. India, for its part, has clearly expressed its suspicions regarding the initiative; in fact, it did not even send a delegate to the B&R Forum in May 2017.

These are problems and risks that have not been adequately discussed.