Depopulation causes huge demographic, economic and attitudinal chasms between rural and urban Spain
Depopulation causes huge chasms between the different regions of Spain, particularly as regards the demographics of gender and age; the economy in terms of employment, productivity, and the creation of wealth; and attitudes as regards trust in institutions and satisfaction with public services. This is the main conclusion of the EsadeEcPol report Depopulation and place-oriented policies, which examines the evolution of depopulation in Spain. The report emphasizes that depopulation has not been and is still not the same in all regions and that the decline in migration from rural to urban areas recorded during the pandemic was more the result of the exodus from small towns grinding to a halt than to town dwellers moving to small towns on account, amongst other things, of working from home.
According to Toni Roldán, director of EsadeEcPol, “Regional polarization is one of the main mega-trends of globalization in the 21st century. The reasons for it are structural and related to the dynamics of globalization and agglomeration economies, and they have social costs that we must try to mitigate by implementing effective policies. However, despite the millions earmarked for investment – 10,000 million in the recovery plan – the effectiveness of place-oriented policies has, so far, not been discussed at all in Spain.”
Main gaps between the rural and urban worlds
The EsadeEcPol report reveals marked differences in the demographics of rural and urban areas. According to its findings, in rural areas some 40% of the population is over 65 compared to 28% in urban areas. The situation is similar in terms of gender: the male/female ratio in cities is 95:100, whilst in rural areas the number of men climbs to 102.
The report also reveals a wide economic gap. Whilst urban areas account for more than 65% of jobs and can produce more than 66% of Spain’s GDP, rural areas account for less than 2% of jobs and similar GDP figures. In this respect, there are also differences in productivity and business performance, measured in terms of the average size of companies — 4.5 workers compared to 2.8 in rural areas — and the rate of business survival.
The report also pinpoints differences in attitudes towards democratic institutions, there being less satisfaction with them in rural areas. As regards satisfaction with public services, rural areas are less satisfied with health services and transport but more satisfied with education than urban areas.
Evolution of depopulation in Spain and impact of the pandemic
The study of demographic change between 1996 and 2020 carried out by EsadeEcPol for this report also demonstrated that depopulation does not affect all areas of Spain to the same extent. According to the data analyzed, the population of certain rural boroughs has grown in some autonomous communities such as Madrid (45%), Murcia (34%) and Catalonia (31%), and shrunk in others such as Asturias (-26.9%), Castilla y León (-19.7%), Galicia (-16.9%) and Extremadura (‑9.6%). As regards small boroughs, growth has occurred mainly on the Mediterranean coast and the islands, around provincial capitals, and large cities, and along the main transport links. However, the report also shows that the impact of the pandemic on migratory flows has improved the overall balance in boroughs with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants in Spain, although the reason for this is because the exodus from small, rural boroughs has fallen by more than 60,000 people in comparison with the average of previous years, rather than a higher population influx from urban to rural areas.
Policies for stemming depopulation
The EsadeEcPol report Depopulation and place-oriented policies also points out that the social costs of depopulation are not merely economic and that they increase as depopulation grows, hence the report’s emphasis on the importance of better discussions about investment and specific policy design particularly as regards the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan which earmarks 10,000 million for this purpose. The report, which analyses the evidence about several place-oriented policies suggests that the top-down policies regarding investment in white elephant infrastructures tend to be very ineffective, and it recommends that “measures should focus on facilitating the creation of business in declining areas by adapting policies to the needs and opportunities of each place”. With this in mind, the document differentiates between large-scale policies focused on mitigating the impact of center-peripheral dynamics and small-scale policies that may vary depending on the characteristics of the borough. However, as Toni Roldán, director of EsadeEcPol says, “there are no magic solutions for depopulation. At best, the aim of policies would be to slow down it down although in certain regions depopulation may be inevitable”.
