
- Director: Dr. Luca del Viva (Esade - Universitat Ramon Llull) and Dr. Carmen Ansotegui (Esade - Universitat Ramon Llull)
- Date of defense: 06/07/2020
Abstract
This dissertation aims at empirically uncovering new aspects of the cross-section of equity returns and providing theoretical-backed and empirical explanations of the main findings. The dissertation documents novel pricing predictors and factors related to the uncertainty and imprecision levels of the information content embedded in different risk measures. The first chapter investigates whether the time-series volatility of book-to-market (BM), called value uncertainty (UNC), is priced in the cross-section of equity returns. A size-adjusted value-weighted factor with a long (short) position in high-UNC (low-UNC) stocks generates an annualized alpha of 6-8%. This value uncertainty premium is driven by outperformance of high-UNC firms and is not explained by established risk factors or firm characteristics, such as price and earnings momentum, investment, profitability, or BM itself. At the aggregate level, UNC is correlated with macroeconomic fundamentals and predicts future market returns and market volatility. The chapter also provides a rational asset-pricing explanation of the uncovered UNC premium. The second chapter extends the first chapter and examines the predictive power of the uncertainty of profitability (UP) on the cross-section of equity returns. A portfolio strategy that goes long in the high-UP decile portfolio and short in the low-UP decile portfolio generates an annual excess raw (risk-adjusted) return of 8% (10%). High-UP stocks would have higher returns during times of higher market-wide profitability, lower market volatility, and higher expected inflation justifying the documented premium. Moreover, firms with high uncertainty surrounding their asset growth (UAG) would outperform those with low asset growth uncertainty by 7% (12%) in terms of excess raw (risk-adjusted) return. Results shed light on the importance of the volatility of risk factors in investment decisions. The third chapter examines the impact that imprecision in management earnings guidance (IMP) has on equity returns. Empirical evidence reveals that high IMP (wider interval in the forecasted earnings) is associated with lower subsequent stock returns. Two complementary explanations are provided to explain the low returns. First, in a market that exhibits short-selling constraints and diversion of opinion regarding earnings estimates, high IMP discourages pessimistic investors while optimists believe in the high bound of the range and take long positions based on these beliefs, leading to stocks' overpricing and hence to lower subsequent returns. Second, high IMP may reflect genuine uncertainty regarding future earnings appealing to growth and lottery investors. Findings are robust at the portfolio and stock level of analysis, to the measurement of imprecision, and to different asset pricing models.
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