Navigating an uncertain world: Building blocks for 2033 scenarios

EsadeGeo Working Paper | October 2020

The major geo-economic transformation and re-shaping of global markets that has taken place over the last two decades is usually summarised as a process of globalisation and convergence. They are usually characterised by economic indicators: trade volume increases outpacing GDP; and faster growth in emerging market economies than in advanced ones. Digital technology has been a key enabler of globalisation—alongside steady (until recently) reductions in cross-border barriers.

The world is at a crossroads: widespread citizen dissatisfaction shakes up the politics of many countries and of international relations as the economic value generated by globalisation has not been shared inclusively enough—and the 2020 pandemic has made inequality worse in many countries; conventional trade in goods and services is stalling while the intangible component of the world economy grows; financial stability concerns resurface as actions to tackle the 2020 pandemic have resulted in major increases in sovereign debt; ... and more.

A lot can change in 10-15 years— we need only look back at 2005 to see that.

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