EsadeGeo Daily Digest, 16/03/2023

The Washington Post – Michelle Ye Hee Lee / Leaders of Japan and South Korea hold first summit in 12 years

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Thursday in Tokyo, the first such summit in 12 years as the two biggest U.S. allies in Asia make cautious steps toward rapprochement after years of bitter lows in the relationship.
• Kishida, who took office in late 2021, and Yoon, elected last May, have met at international conferences and summits but this will be the first time since 2011 that a South Korean or Japanese leader has visited the other in their home country.
• The summit is a reflection of South Korea’s new priority of overcoming historical differences and strengthening security and diplomatic cooperation with Japan and the United States as the three seek to unite against increasing threats from North Korea and China.
• The meeting is also significant to the United States because President Biden has emphasized the role of like-minded allies in tackling security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

Financial Times – Felicia Schwartz / US defence secretary Lloyd Austin speaks with Russian counterpart over drone incident

• US defence secretary Lloyd Austin discussed the downing of a US surveillance drone over the Black Sea with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday in a rare conversation amid escalating tensions over the incident. 
• The phone call, which marked the third time the two officials have spoken since the war began, came a day after US officials said a Russian fighter jet had struck the MQ-9 Reaper drone and forced it down over the Black Sea. 
• “It’s important that great powers be models of transparency and communication,” Austin said, adding that the US takes “any potential for escalation very seriously, and that’s why I believe it’s important to keep the lines of communication open”. 
• Austin said Washington would continue to conduct surveillance flights in the area. “The United States will fly and operate wherever international law allows,” he said.

Haaretz – Jonathan Lis / Netanyahu rejects president Herzog’s compromise on judicial coup

• Israeli President Issac Herzog presented on Wednesday evening his compromise proposal as an alternative to the Netanyahu government's planned judicial coup, which the prime minister denounced as perpetuating the current situation.
• According to Herzog's plan, the 'reasonableness' standard - which allows the High Court to override government decisions it deems 'unreasonable' will not be applicable to government decisions and ministerial appointments; the Supreme Court will not intervene into matters of Basic Laws; intervention into matters of regular laws will require an expanded forum of 11 judges and a two-thirds majority.
• The plan also suggests that the Judicial Appointments Committee will include 11 members: three supreme court justices (including the Supreme Court president); three ministers; three Knesset members – a coalition member and two opposition members. The plan also calls for a majority of seven members to appoint judges. This means that the coalition will have a majority in the committee, but it won't guarantee an automatic appointment of any candidate the coalition wishes.
• Herzog said in his speech that "broad consensus is the right thing at this moment. Israeli democracy is the soul of our nation, and we must protect it at all costs." The president warned that "Whoever thinks real civil war, including bloodshed, is out of reach - has no idea. The abyss is within reach. A civil war is the red line. I will not let that happen.

Financial Times – Najmeh Bozorgmehr and Simeon Kerr / Iran’s top security official to visit UAE as regional relations thaw

• Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani, will travel to the United Arab Emirates for talks on Thursday, in the latest sign of improving relations between the Islamic republic and Gulf states. 
• The trip comes after Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed last week to restore diplomatic ties within two months, putting an end to a seven-year rift. 
• The agreement between the rival Middle East powers was part of a China-brokered deal signed by Shamkhani and his Saudi counterpart in Beijing. Shamkhani had extra credibility as a regional dealmaker because Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appointed him secretary of the powerful Supreme National Security Council, according to analysts in the country.
• “The fact that Shamkhani is directly involved in such talks shows the Islamic republic is determined to improve its ties with the Arab states” in the Gulf, said Saeed Laylaz, an Iranian political analyst.

Our opinion reads for today: 

• European Council on Foreign Relations – Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard / Fragile unity: why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)
• Foreign Policy – James Crabtree / Biden and Xi are doomed to escalation