EsadeGeo Daily Digest, 11/10/2022

Deutsche Welle / Ukraine: Biden promises advanced air defense systems following Russian strikes

• US President Joe Biden promised to provide Ukraine with advanced air defense systems, the White House said in a statement.
• While speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Biden "pledged to continue providing Ukraine with the support needed to defend itself, including advanced air defense systems."
• The statement follows a series of Russian strikes on a number of Ukrainian cities including Kyiv. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened more "severe" attacks in Ukraine.
• The White House statement said that Biden "conveyed his condolences to the loved ones of those killed and injured in these senseless attacks."
• Financial Times – John Paul Rathbone, Ben Hall and Henry Foy / Russian attacks expose Ukraine’s air defence systems shortage

Financial Times – John Paul Rathbone / Russians awakening to cost of Putin’s invasion, says UK spy chief

• Ordinary Russians are increasingly counting the cost of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and can see ever more clearly “how badly Putin has misjudged the situation”, according to a senior British spy chief. 
• Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of British cyber intelligence unit GCHQ, called Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine a “high-stakes strategy” where “the costs to Russia — in people and equipment — are staggering” and the “Russian population has started to understand that”. 
• “We know — and Russian commanders on the ground know — that their supplies and munitions are running out. Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation,” Fleming said. 
• The Russian population is, meanwhile, “fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel. They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. And they are feeling the extent of the dreadful human cost of his [Putin’s] war of choice,” Fleming added.
• Politico – Jamie Dettmer / Putin’s endgame? Kremlin infighting spills into the open

Financial Times – Sam Fleming, Henry Foy and Colby Smith / Fed-led dash for higher rates risks ‘world recession’, warns top EU diplomat

• The Federal Reserve is leading a worldwide rush of central bank rate rises that risks tipping the world into a recession, the EU’s top diplomat said, as he warned the union is not fighting its corner in the world. 
• Josep Borrell, the high representative of the 27-member bloc, said central banks were being forced to follow the Fed’s multiple rate rises to prevent their currencies from slumping against the dollar — comparing the US central bank’s influence to Germany’s dominance of European monetary policy before the creation of the euro. 
• “Everybody has to follow, because otherwise their currency will be [devalued],” Borrell said to an audience of EU ambassadors. “Everybody is running to increase interest rates, this will bring us to a world recession.” 
• The unguarded comments on the Fed came in a wide-ranging speech in which he criticised the EU for failing to listen to foreign countries and seeking to “export” its governance model and standards on to others, and admitted that the bloc failed to anticipate Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine despite warnings from Washington.
• Project Syndicate – Lawrence H. Summers / A new chance for the World Bank 

Al Jazeera / UAE president to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tuesday

• United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan will travel to Russia on Tuesday to meet President Vladimir Putin with energy and war likely topping the agenda.
• The announcement on the UAE’s state news agency WAM on Monday came less than a week after OPEC+, a group of oil producers that includes the UAE and Russia, agreed to steep cuts in oil production in defiance of US pressure.
• It plans to slow production by two million barrels per day – its largest supply cut since 2020.
• The presidents will also meet as the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens world energy supplies.
• Foreign Policy – Hanna Notte / How Ukraine has changed Russian diplomacy

Today’s longer reads: 

• Financial Times – Gideon Rachman / Why I’d rather have Liz Truss than Xi Jinping as a leader
• Project Syndicate – Minxin Pei / Blowing down the CPC’s house of cards