On December 18th, EsadeGeo celebrated in Madrid its fifteenth anniversary in an event featuring leading international voices Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, and Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary General of UNCTAD. 

The keynote address by Martin Wolf outlined a global economic map built around long term certainties and unresolved risks. Demographic change, technological dynamism, the historical trajectory of global growth, the shift of production towards Asia and accelerating climate change were identified as structural trends. At the same time, major political uncertainties remain, including the risk of large scale wars, financial crises and new pandemics. While short term growth around three percent appears likely barring major catastrophes, Wolf warned of decisive fragilities such as great power confrontation, shrinking fiscal space in advanced economies and persistent financial system vulnerabilities. Over the longer term, he argued that forces such as artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition could boost productivity and development, provided they are managed within a stable institutional framework.

From the perspective of trade and development, Rebeca Grynspan, described what she termed an uncomfortable resilience. Global trade has held up better than expected, supported by services, South-South trade and sectors linked to digital and clean technologies. Yet this resilience does not translate into development progress. Many countries in the Global South face a growing debt burden that absorbs more resources than health or education spending, leading to what she described as a de facto default on development rather than on debt. Declining investment flows and rising trade pressures further constrain their growth prospects.

The closing discussion turned to Europe and the future of the multilateral order. Wolf portrayed the European Union as caught between increasingly predatory dynamics from both the United States and China, calling for greater European strategic and economic autonomy and deeper partnerships with regions such as India and Africa. Grynspan framed the challenge as a political choice between a multipolarity that can coexist with effective multilateralism and one that leads to fragmentation and collective loss. She argued that Europe remains a key actor in rebuilding trust through institutional reform, coalition building and strategic trade agreements.

The anniversary event reinforced a central message of EsadeGeo’s work. Geopolitics is no longer an external variable but a core dimension shaping economic stability, development paths, supply chains and institutional resilience. Founded in 2010 and chaired by Javier Solana, EsadeGeo has continued to position itself as a bridge between academic analysis and public debate, focused on understanding and responding to the profound transformations of the global economic and geopolitical landscape.