MacroInsights #04
Fernando Gutiérrez del Arroyo González, Juan Pablo Riesgo, Manuel Hidalgo Pérez, Teresa Raigada, Jorge Galindo
28 Nov, 2023
Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for November 2023.
Macro outlook
The Spanish economy remains in positive territory in the final stretch of the year: the RealTimeTracker estimates positive GDP growth in Q4 2023 (+0.2%), showing a trend of gentle slowdown in recent quarters, but growth figures higher than those anticipated months ago. Annual growth of the Spanish economy could reach +2.4% in 2023.
Global focus
Despite the stagnation of trade as a % of world GDP, the underlying trend is defined more by a recomposition of globalisation than by its slowdown in absolute terms:
• Sectors: while mining and fuels decline, trade in agricultural products and manufactured goods is increasing.
• Segments: as the possibilities for outsourcing manufacturing are exhausted, companies are insourcing more processes, reducing imports of intermediate goods.
• Regions: China is reorienting its economy towards domestic demand (reducing its trade share of GDP from 65% in 2006 to half that today), but that same percentage continues to rise in other Asian or EU countries, driven by countries such as Spain, Italy or the Netherlands. The regionalisation of trade and supply chains is a noticeable trend.
Micro perspective
Within this reconfiguration of globalisation, a majority of business leaders (86% in a recent survey of 300+ CEOs conducted by Teneo) see deglobalisation as a reality, and a significant one for 50%.
The EIB estimates that 1 in 3 European companies is refocusing on its domestic market in response to trade disruptions, and 1 in 5 is trying to shorten its supply chains.
This process not only has intrinsic costs, but also poses challenges specific to Spain and Europe, reflected especially in the high dependence on critical raw materials, intermediate goods and strategic services (finance, data and technology). Reducing this dependence will depend largely on strategies to diversify sources and suppliers, combining public and private efforts.
Economista especializado en finanzas sostenibles, regulación ESG y análisis regulatorio. Actualmente, director de control interno ESG en Banco Sabadell. Ha trabajado en el Banco de España, en Solchaga Recio & Asociados y Metyis.
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Project Manager & Content Curator, EsadeEcPol. Licenciada en Economía y Derecho por la UC3M, Master en Administración Pública por la London School of Economics.
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