• The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates GDP growth of 0.5% in Q2 2026, stepping down from the trend of the past two years.
  • Demand, confidence, supply and the labour market all contribute to quarterly growth, pointing to a favourable diversification of growth sources.
  • Should the slowdown be confirmed, heightened macro risks, tighter financial conditions, the uptick in inflation and the moderation of external demand could accentuate the deceleration
  • The resulting annual GDP growth range for 2026 stands at 2.1–2.3% in 2026, subject to the duration and intensity of international uncertainty.
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