RealTimeMacro – December 2025

• The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarterly GDP growth of 0.7% in Q4 2025, in line with the average of the last four quarters. With still very incomplete information, it also anticipates a slight acceleration in Q1 2026 (+0.8%), indicating that the Spanish economy’s momentum would continue in the short term.

• The 0.7% growth in Q4 2025 would have received a positive contribution from the turnover indices for most service sectors, offset by mixed signals in the confidence and investment indices and a slightly negative contribution from certain demand, supply and labour market indicators.

• The growth profile up to Q3 2025 and the RealTimeTracker’s estimate for Q4 2025 put annual growth at 2.9%, seven tenths of a point more than forecast at the start of the year and more than double that of the eurozone. This would confirm the relative resilience of the Spanish economy and its ability to navigate a balance of elevated risks.