Those reluctant about climate change policies: who they are, what they think and how they vote

Spanish citizens agree on the existence and seriousness of climate change: only 5% give it little importance (EsadeEcPol 2022), barely 8% think it is not real (CIS 2022) and for 71% its consequences are already visible. But this consensus on recognising the climate crisis fades when we focus on the measures to tackle it. In this document, we use the Green Polarisation Survey conducted by EsadeEcPol in April 2022 to build a classification of individuals who are supportive of, ambivalent about or reluctant about green transition policies, based on their positions on bans, taxes and subsidies relating to transport and fuels. The results show that:

→ A majority (64%) hold ambivalent or mixed positions

→ The rest are split between the reluctant (17.5%) and the supportive (18.5%)

The factor that seems to determine most whether someone is considered reluctant or supportive is ideology: according to a multifactor analysis of the survey data, the probability of being reluctant about the green transition measures considered rises from 8% to 33% depending on whether the person places themselves at the far left or far right of the spectrum.

Very similar results are obtained when analysing positions on more specific issues, such as preferences on taxes or the right of LGBTIQ+ couples to adopt. Once again, voting for left-wing parties is more common among those who support these policies, while voting for the right predominates among the reluctant.

In addition, there appear to be more middle-aged people and people from small municipalities among the reluctant, while young people from large municipalities abound among the supportive.

Other relevant factors appear to be sex (with women more present among the supportive) and socio-economic class (with the upper-middle classes over-represented in that same category, and the upper and lower-middle classes among the reluctant).

All this suggests that positions on specific green transition measures are associated with particular ideological and socio-demographic profiles, and this overlap between attitudes and individual characteristics may sharpen the existing ideological polarisation around this issue.

However, there remains a broad majority with ambivalent positions whose weight in all socio-demographic and voting categories is large enough to offer room for manoeuvre to those who aspire to build coalitions in support of the ecological transition.