insight Macro Insights
RealTimeMacro – september 2025
Fernando Gutiérrez del Arroyo González, Manuel Hidalgo Pérez, Juan Pablo Riesgo, Jorge Galindo, Teresa Raigada
17 Sep, 2025
- The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates GDP growth of 0.7% in Q3 2025, in line with the figures recorded in recent quarters. It also anticipates, with still very incomplete information, an increase of +0.5% in Q4, which would suggest a moderate slowdown in growth in the final quarter of the year.
- The 0.7% increase would have been positively supported by virtually all the indicators feeding into the model, both on the supply and demand sides, reflecting a balanced composition of growth.
- The carry-over effect from economic growth in 2024 and the quarterly GDP profile in the current year allow us to forecast an advance of 2.7% in 2025, four tenths higher than in the spring. This figure remains above the projection for the euro area and reflects Spain’s resilience in a context dominated by high external risks of various kinds.
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Fernando Gutiérrez del Arroyo González
Economista especializado en finanzas sostenibles, regulación ESG y análisis regulatorio. Actualmente, director de control interno ESG en Banco Sabadell. Ha trabajado en el Banco de España, en Solchaga Recio & Asociados y Metyis.
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Teresa Raigada
Project Manager & Content Curator, EsadeEcPol. Graduate in Economics and Law from UC3M, Master in Public Administration from the London School of Economics.
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