MacroInsights #02
Fernando Gutiérrez del Arroyo González, Juan Pablo Riesgo, Manuel Hidalgo Pérez, Ignacio García López, Teresa Raigada, Jorge Galindo
19 Jul, 2023
Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for September 2023.
Macro outlook
The outlook for the Spanish economy is positive in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.6% in Q2 2023, in line with the Q1 2023 figure.
However, specific indicators show mixed trends: some consumption and labour market indicators have had a negative cumulative impact. By contrast, construction and industrial production have managed to offset this.
Global focus
European monetary policy will move between two scenarios in the coming months:
→ Optimistic: the end of rate hikes is very close; rates will fall from summer 2024.
→ Pessimistic: rates will keep climbing and will start to ease in mid-2025.
The final scenario will depend above all on the evolution of headline inflation (and, increasingly, core inflation), followed by other factors such as credit trends and conditions or wage bargaining.
Micro perspective
Monetary policy tightening is feeding through to credit, with lower demand and more restrictive conditions on the supply side. Households’ initial balance sheet strength to withstand rising rates is significant, but lower-income mortgage holders are a vulnerable group that could be seriously affected if rates keep rising or remain high for a long time.
Economista especializado en finanzas sostenibles, regulación ESG y análisis regulatorio. Actualmente, director de control interno ESG en Banco Sabadell. Ha trabajado en el Banco de España, en Solchaga Recio & Asociados y Metyis.
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Project Manager & Content Curator, EsadeEcPol. Licenciada en Economía y Derecho por la UC3M, Master en Administración Pública por la London School of Economics.
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