RealTimeMacro – May 2025

• RealTimeTracker, our real-time tracking and forecasting model, estimates that quarterly GDP growth will be in the range of 0.5%-0.6% in Q2 2025, slowing slightly compared to recent quarters. We also anticipate, with information still very incomplete, a +0.2% increase in Q3, which would suggest a gradual slowdown in growth throughout the year.
• Recent confidence and employment indicators would have contributed positively to the 0.5%-0.6% increase, while demand (retail consumption) and supply (industrial activity and most service sectors) indicators would have contributed negatively.
• The carryover effect from the Spanish economy’s economic dynamism in 2024 and the growth projected for the first half of the year would guarantee growth of more than 2% in 2025. However, the international context of significant uncertainty and instability (trade, financial, and geopolitical) could restore additional strength to growth going forward. For now, the RTT forecasts annual GDP growth of around 2.3%, lower than in the last four years, but still substantially higher than that of the eurozone.