The COVID pass prevents thousands of deaths: an analysis with data from France, Italy and Germany

In this article we evaluate the impact of the incentives to get vaccinated created by the COVID pass for access to public spaces in France, Germany and Italy.

We estimate that from its announcement in summer 2021 until the end of the year, the COVID certificate increased the vaccination rate by around 13 percentage points of the total population in France, 6.2 points in Germany and 9.7 points in Italy.

As a result, COVID passes prevented around 4,000 COVID deaths in France (equivalent to 32% more than the 12,000 that occurred in this period), 1,100 in Germany (i.e. 6% more) and 1,300 in Italy (i.e. 14% more).

In France, where the impact was greatest, the COVID certificate considerably reduced pressure on intensive care units, thus avoiding exceeding the occupancy thresholds that triggered previous lockdowns.

As a result of all the above, in economic terms, COVID passes reduced GDP losses by around 6 billion euros in France, 1.4 billion euros in Germany and 2.1 billion euros in Italy.

Our results are quantitatively stronger than expected and should inform decisions on when and how to implement certificates of this kind.

In Spain, the vaccination rate is higher than in these countries, so we would expect a smaller effect from introducing this measure. However, it would be advisable to use the heterogeneity in the implementation of the pass to carry out a rigorous evaluation of its positive effects in terms of vaccination, deaths and economic cost.