MacroInsights #03
Fernando Gutiérrez del Arroyo González, Juan Pablo Riesgo, Manuel Hidalgo Pérez, Ignacio García López, Teresa Raigada, Jorge Galindo
21 Sep, 2023
Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for October 2023.
Macro outlook:
The Spanish economy is entering negative territory in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates negative GDP growth in Q3 2023: -0.1%. This rate, which already takes into account the INE revision of the national accounts published on 18 September, would end five quarters of uninterrupted growth. Even so, and even in a scenario of flat or slightly negative growth in Q4 2023, Spanish GDP would end the year with growth, probably above that of neighbouring economies such as Germany, France or Italy.
Global focus
The crisis that came with the pandemic was the third in a sequence of shocks that has left Spain stagnating: its income per capita has barely grown over the last fifteen years.
This lack of progress in absolute terms has been accompanied by a widening relative gap with the benchmark advanced economies, which were either already richer than Spain and are now even richer, or were poorer and have overtaken us (or soon will).
Micro perspective
Although some imbalances have been corrected, Spain continues to show persistent vulnerabilities affecting its business and productive fabric, holding back growth. The Banco de España has recently made recommendations that point to the barriers to regaining sustained progress: insufficient investment in innovation, the small average size of companies, public sector effectiveness and insufficient human capital are the most prominent. The combination of NextGenEU funds and the new legislature opens a window of opportunity to tackle them.
Economista especializado en finanzas sostenibles, regulación ESG y análisis regulatorio. Actualmente, director de control interno ESG en Banco Sabadell. Ha trabajado en el Banco de España, en Solchaga Recio & Asociados y Metyis.
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Project Manager & Content Curator, EsadeEcPol. Licenciada en Economía y Derecho por la UC3M, Master en Administración Pública por la London School of Economics.
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