MacroInsights #01
Manuel Hidalgo Pérez, Juan Pablo Riesgo, Jorge Galindo, Ignacio García López, Teresa Raigada
23 Jun, 2023
Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for June 2023.
Macro outlook
The growth forecasts for the Spanish economy are positive in the short term: we estimate quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.5% in the second quarter.
The services sector is driving this growth, which means that if its performance cools relative to expectations, growth will also ease: this is what has been happening over the last month according to our real-time model.
This forecast comes from a model that uses more than 40 real-time indicators to provide us with information on the likely evolution of the Spanish economy, the degree of certainty of the estimate and the direction in which the indicators used are pushing.
Among the activities that performed better than expected throughout the quarter are hospitality and tourism, construction and transport. By contrast, industry, retail and consumption performed worse than expected.
Global focus
The readjustment of global supply amid a series of sequential shocks since 2020 creates two twin challenges for European economies, which will become evident in the second half of 2023: the delayed impact of the monetary policy response to these shocks and the need to consolidate a deep adaptation of our productive sectors to the new scenario.
Micro perspective
Companies will need to increase the resilience and adaptability of their production chains in the face of changes in global demand and supply.
This means redesigning production chains, with strategies that include supplier diversification, re-shoring and automation.
Implementing and financing these measures are immediate challenges, which increases the demand for human capital adapted to the new needs in supply chain management and the need to balance sources of financing for companies whose fixed production costs are set to rise.
Project Manager & Content Curator, EsadeEcPol. Licenciada en Economía y Derecho por la UC3M, Master en Administración Pública por la London School of Economics.
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