‘Anything that makes both parties in Venezuela sit down and talk is good: the use of force would be catastrophic’, stated Enrique V. Iglesias, current director of the Latin America Chair at the Universidad Pontificia Comillas-ICADE and Ibero-American secretary-general between 2005 and 2014. He was responding to a question from ESADE president of  ESADEgeo Javier Solana about the current situation in Venezuela. His perspective on the conflict was one of the highlights of the most recent Big Challenges conference, which brought together Iglesias and Solana at the ESADEForum to discuss the future of Latin America. 

Solana presented Iglesias as ‘one of the Latin Americans with the broadest perspectives on what is happening in the region’, and opened the debate by asking about the roles that nations closely associated with Venezuela – such as Cuba – should play in the resolution of the conflict. ‘Cuba's opinion is very important for any kind of solution, just as this country played a crucial role in the pacification of Colombia,’ Iglesias recalled. He insisted that a solution should enable a dialogue between both parties and added that Maduro has requested the mediation of the Pope.

For Iglesias, the recognition of Guaidó by 70% of the international community is very significant but makes a resolution difficult. ‘A dialogue would be welcome, but unfortunately, it is badly seen by some and considered a manner to perpetuate the current regime,’ he said. ‘Venezuela is not Nicaragua, and it is a much more internationalised conflict’, referring to the active role of the United States in favour of regime change and support for Maduro by China and Russia. ‘I miss a minimum intervention by the UN, even if only an attempt to discover what is happening’, lamented Iglesias. He recognises that the European Union, with Spain at the front, can also help find a solution.

Political change and economic uncertainty 

Despite being the most urgent issue, Venezuela did not monopolise the debate between Iglesias and Solana – who asked the former Ibero-American secretary general for a wider perspective of the region following the arrival of new leaders in nations such as Brazil and Mexico. Iglesias recognised that politicians such as Bolsonaro promised solutions to ‘real problems’ such as corruption and violence. ‘In Brazil there was a collective suicide of the political parties and we have a new movement’, he explained. Iglesias believes that Bolsonaro has surrounded himself with a solid team of economists with the objective of ‘putting finances in order and opening the Brazilian economy – and the markets are supporting him’. He added that an unusual fact is that the governments of two of the largest powers in the Americas now share a great affinity. 

From an economic perspective, Iglesias explained that growth in Latin America is ‘mediocre’ and this will complicate the budgets of many countries that face growing social demands. The boom in raw materials that the region experienced has ended and the Argentine crisis – where elections will be held at the end of the year – is spreading across the continent. This leaves Latin America at the mercy of powers such as China, which buys and sells, but also invests in the region and lends to several countries. For Iglesias, this moment is an opportunity for Europe if it wants to play a greater role in the continent. ‘Latin America is a fertile field and a good partner, as it has shown to the Spanish companies that have settled in the region’, he noted.