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ESADE Target

ESADE Economic Target (GDP)

ESADE Economic Target (GDP)

The ESADE Economic Target analyses GDP (gross domestic product) growth forecasts made in the autumn for the year ahead by organisations compiled by the FUNCAS panel. These forecasts are then compared with the actual figures subsequently published for the real economy by the Spanish National Statistics Institute (INE) at the end of the year.

The position of each organisation in the ESADE Economic Target reflects the average deviation of its forecasts for the last three years.

Deviations are calculated in absolute value (positive sign) and each point on the graph represents a deviation of one point of GDP. In addition to the ESADE Economic Target, ESADE also publishes the degree of accuracy of the forecasts of these and other international organisations for the eurozone and the four major European economies.

2018 Economic Target (Spain)

2018 Economic Target (European Union)

ESADE Target Data

The forecasts for the year ahead used in the ESADE Target are gathered by a FUNCAS panel each September.

The actual GDP figures are published by the National Statistics Institute in the January following the year studied.

Each publication of the ESADE Economic Target also analyses:

  • The degree of deviation in the forecasts for the current year.

  • The accuracy ranking for the current year forecasts and a comparison with the previous year.  

  • An historical comparison of the overall average for forecast deviations. 

2018 Economic Target (Spain)

1

Forecast Table

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gobierno de España 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 1.0% -0.3% 1.3% 2.3% -0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6%
IEE   3.0%     3.1% 3.2%   -1.1% 0.5%   -1.2% 0.7% 1.9% 3.0% 2.3% 2.7%
Intermoney 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 3.4% 3.5% 3.0% -0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% -2.0% 0.5% 2.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7%
Repsol                 0.4% 1.0% -1.4% 0.8% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% 3.0%
CEOE                   0.7% -1.6% 0.8% 1.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.7%
I. Flores de Lemus 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0% -1.1% 0.3% 1.3% -1.6% 0.3% 1.9% 2.9% 2.1%  
Santander 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 1.0% -0.4% 0.8% 0.9% -1.4% 0.9% 2.1% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7%
AFI 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 0.3% -0.6% 0.4% 0.9% -2.0% 0.5% 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8%
Axesor                             2.6% 2.8%
Cámara de Comercio de España                               2.8%
Bankia 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 0.3% -1.1% 0.4% 1.0% -1.5% 0.8% 2.0% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0%
FUNCAS 2.5% 3.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% -0.5% -1.0% 0.4% 1.0% -1.8% 1.0% 2.2% 2.8% 2.3% 2.7%
ICAE 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 0.6% -0.9% 0.5%   -1.2% 0.5% 2.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6%
OCDE 3.3% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.7% 1.1% -0.9% 0.9% 1.6% -0.8% 0.4% 1.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.4%
Banco de España                 0.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.6% 2.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.5%
BBVA 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8% 0.5% -0.7% 0.7% 1.0% -1.4% 0.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.3% 2.8%
CEEM-URJC                 0.5% 1.1% -1.4% 1.1% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.7%
Solchaga Recio & Asociados                 0.8% 1.1% -1.8% 0.8% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7%
Comisión Europea 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7%   3.4%       1.5% -0.3% 0.9% 2.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4%
CaixaBank 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% -1.5% 0.8% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7%
Cemex                 0.0% 0.9% -2.0% 0.8% 2.0% 2.5% 2.4% 2.7%
FMI 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.7% 1.2% -0.8% 0.6% 1.1% -1.3% 0.0% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.4%
CEPREDE 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 0.8% -0.3% 0.5% 0.9% -1.2% 0.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 2.5%
The Economist 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 0.3% -0.5% 0.4% 0.6% -1.2% 0.1% 1.4%      
CatalunyaCaixa 1.9% 2.8% 2.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 0.3% -0.9% 0.7% 1.1% -1.4% 0.8% 1.9%      
ESADE                   0.9% -1.2% 0.5%        
Cons. Sup. de Cámaras 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 0.2%                  
ICO 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 0.9%                  
                                 
Average Forecasts 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 0.5% -0.6% 0.6% 1.1% -1.3% 0.7% 2.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.7%
Real GDP 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0% 3.6% 0.9% -3.7% -0.1% 0.7% -1.4% -1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5%
1

Deviations Table

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IEE 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 2.3% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% -0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Intermoney 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.5% 2.4% 0.8% -0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2%
Repsol                 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% -0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5%
Gobierno de España 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.4% 4.7% 0.2% 0.6% 3.7% 0.7% -0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
CEOE                 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% -0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2%
I. Flores de Lemus 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.4% 2.7% 0.4% -1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1.0%  
Santander 0.6% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 2.1% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3%   -0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
AFI 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.9% 4.0% 0.5% 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% -0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Axesor                             0.5% 0.3%
Cámara de Comercio de España                               0.3%
Bankia 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1.8% 4.0% 1.0% 0.3% 2.4% 0.3% -0.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5%
FUNCAS 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 2.0% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.4% 0.6% -0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
ICAE 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.1% 4.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% -0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
OCDE 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 1.8% 4.8% 0.8% 0.2% 3.0% 0.4% -1.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%
BBVA 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% -0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
CEEM-URJC                 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% -0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Solchaga Recio & Asociados                 0.1% 2.5% 0.6% -0.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2%
Banco de España                 0.1% 2.9% 1.4% -0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
CaixaBank 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 2.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% 0.3% -0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Comisión Europea                 0.2% 2.9% 0.9% -0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Cemex                 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% -0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2%
FMI 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.8% 4.9% 0.7% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% -1.4% 1.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1%
CEPREDE 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 4.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 0.0% -0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
CatalunyaCaixa 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.0% 2.5% 0.2% -0.6% 1.3%      
The Economist 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 4.0% 0.4% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% -1.3% 1.8%      
ESADE                 0.2% 2.3% 0.0% -0.9%        
Cons. Sup. de Cámaras 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.6%         1.9%      
ICO 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.4% 4.6% 0.6%                
                                 
Average Deviations 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 2.1% 4.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.74% 1.23% 0.44% 0.80% 0.20%
Real GDP 3.1% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0% 3.6% 0.9% -3.7% -0.1% 0.7% -1.4% -1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5%
1

Economic Target 2005-2018

  2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CEEM-URJC                 0.96% 0.99% 0.50% 0.60% 0.87% 0.50%
FUNCAS 0.53% 0.67% 0.67% 1.07% 1.80% 2.03% 1.47% 1.19% 1.09% 1.12% 0.67% 0.60% 0.73% 0.47%
BBVA 0.80% 0.90% 0.75% 1.05% 2.15% 2.23% 1.60% 0.99% 0.86% 1.02% 0.53% 0.63% 0.73% 0.53%
Santander 0.70% 0.83% 0.80% 1.17% 2.40% 2.37% 1.70% 0.89% 0.86% 0.99% 0.60% 0.63% 0.63% 0.47%
Repsol               1.34% 0.96% 1.06% 0.67% 0.67% 0.77% 0.40%
Intermoney 0.90% 0.90% 0.60% 0.93% 1.77% 1.97% 1.43% 1.19% 1.22% 1.36% 0.90% 0.70% 0.87% 0.50%
Bankia 0.67% 0.73% 0.70% 1.00% 2.03% 2.27% 1.77% 1.22% 0.99% 1.09% 0.70% 0.73% 0.73% 0.50%
CEOE                 0.90% 1.02% 0.77% 0.73% 1.03% 0.43%
IEE 0.51% 0.62% 0.69% 1.21% 2.29% 2.45% 1.75% 1.19% 0.86% 1.06% 0.67% 0.73% 0.77% 0.40%
Solchaga & Recio Asociados               1.29% 1.06% 1.22% 0.77% 0.73% 0.77% 0.53%
Comisión Europea                 1.34% 1.42% 0.83% 0.73% 0.83% 0.43%
ICAE 0.60% 0.63% 0.57% 1.07% 2.27% 2.40% 1.77% 1.13% 0.86% 1.13% 0.63% 0.77% 0.73% 0.40%
Gobierno de España 0.33% 0.53% 0.57% 1.17% 2.50% 2.43% 1.83% 1.49% 1.66% 1.76% 0.93% 0.77% 0.83% 0.33%
CEPREDE 0.40% 0.50% 0.51% 0.98% 2.26% 2.19% 1.62% 0.89% 0.82% 0.92% 0.50% 0.80% 0.77% 0.70%
Cemex                 1.26% 1.22% 0.87% 0.83% 1.30% 0.53%
Banco de España               1.49% 1.46% 1.69% 1.13% 0.83% 0.70% 0.43%
AFI 0.60% 0.67% 0.63% 1.03% 2.13% 2.13% 1.60% 1.02% 1.12% 1.32% 1.00% 0.87% 0.83% 0.50%
Axesor                           0.40%
Cámara de Comercio de España                           0.30%
I. Flores de Lemus 0.57% 0.70% 0.60% 1.07% 2.00% 2.27% 1.70% 1.36% 1.16% 1.39% 0.93% 0.90% 0.77%  
CaixaBank 0.63% 0.70% 0.70% 1.07% 2.27% 2.17% 1.50% 0.86% 0.92% 1.12% 0.80% 0.90% 0.93% 0.50%
OCDE 0.23% 0.43% 0.57% 1.07% 2.40% 2.47% 1.93% 1.32% 1.19% 1.46% 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 0.43%
FMI 0.53% 0.73% 0.77% 1.13% 2.43% 2.47% 1.90% 1.09% 0.89% 1.32% 1.03% 1.23% 0.77% 0.60%
The Economist 0.67% 0.87% 0.97% 1.23% 2.20% 2.07% 1.57% 0.89% 0.76% 1.09% 1.03% 1.55%    
CatalunyaCaixa 0.90% 0.67% 0.53% 1.00% 2.17% 2.40% 1.60% 1.09% 0.89% 1.09% 0.70%      
Cons. Sup. de Cámaras 0.50% 0.60% 0.60% 1.13% 2.17% 2.24% 2.26%              
ESADE               2.27% 0.84% 1.06%        
ICO 0.40% 0.53% 0.57% 1.17% 2.47% 2.54%                
1

Sign in Deviation

  2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IEE 2.4% 0.0% -0.7% -1.3% -0.2% -0.8% 0.2%
Intermoney 2.4% -0.8% -0.9% -1.0% -0.2% -1.1% 0.2%
Repsol 2.4% -0.2% -0.6% -1.2% -0.2% -0.5% 0.5%
Gobierno de España 3.7% 0.7% -0.9% -1.2% -0.2% -0.8% 0.1%
CEOE 2.1% -0.4% -0.6% -1.3% -0.3% -0.8% 0.2%
I. Flores de Lemus 2.7% -0.4% -1.1% -1.3% -0.3% -1.0%  
Santander 2.3%   -0.5% -1.1% -0.3% -0.9% 0.2%
AFI 2.3% -0.8% -0.9% -1.3% -0.4% -0.8% 0.3%
Axesor           -0.5% 0.3%
Bankia 2.4% -0.3% -0.6% -1.2% -0.4% -0.6% 0.5%
FUNCAS 2.4% -0.6% -0.4% -1.0% -0.4% -0.8% 0.2%
ICAE 2.4% 0.0% -0.9% -1.0% -0.4% -0.7% 0.1%
OCDE 3.0% 0.4% -1.0% -1.6% -0.4% -0.8% -0.1%
BBVA 2.4% -0.2% -0.5% -0.9% -0.5% -0.8% 0.3%
CEEM-URJC 2.5% -0.2% -0.3% -1.0% -0.5% -0.8% 0.2%
Solchaga Recio & Asociados 2.5% -0.6% -0.6% -1.1% -0.5% -0.9% 0.2%
Banco de España 2.9% 1.4% -0.8% -1.2% -0.5% -0.8% 0.0%
CaixaBank   2.5% -0.3% -0.6% -1.5% -0.6% -0.7% 0.2%
Comisión Europea 2.9% 0.9% -0.5% -1.1% -0.6% -0.6% -0.1%
Cemex 2.3% -0.8% -0.6% -1.2% -0.7% -0.7% 0.2%
FMI 2.5% -0.1% -1.4% -1.6% -0.7% -1.0% -0.1%
CEPREDE 2.3% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -0.9% -1.2% 0.0%
CatalunyaCaixa 2.5% -0.2% -0.6% -1.3%      
The Economist 2.0% 0.0% -1.3% -1.8%      
ESADE 2.3% 0.0% -0.9%        
Cons. Sup. de Cámaras              
ICO              
Camara de Comercio de España             0.3%
               
Average Deviations 2.50% -0.11% -0.74% -1.23% -0.44% -0.80% 0.18%
Real GDP -1.4% -1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5%

2018 Economic Target (European Union)

1

Forecast Table

  Euro zone Germany France Italy UK
BBVA 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2%
CaixaBank 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6%
Santander 2.1%       1.6%
FMI 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1%
OCDE 1.8% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 1.6%
Comisión Europea 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3%
Bloomberg 2.1%       1.5%
           
Average Forecast 2.00% 1.96% 1.64% 1.32% 1.41%
Real GDP 1.80% 0.60% 0.90% 0.10% 1.30%
1

Deviations Table

  Euro Zone Germany France Italy UK Inst. Deviation
BBVA 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.83%
CaixaBank 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1.00%
Santander 0.3%       0.3% 0.30%
FMI 0.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.93%
OCDE 0.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.75%
Comisión Europea 0.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.88%
Bloomberg 0.3%       0.2% 0.20%
             
Average Deviations 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.70%
Real GDP 1.8% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% 0.7%
1

European Union Target

  2016 2017 2018
Bloomberg 0.24% 0.57% 0.63%
CaixaBank 0.33% 0.83% 0.90%
Santander 0.39% 0.63% 0.67%
FMI 0.41% 0.48% 0.45%
Comisión Europea 0.46% 0.33% 0.40%
OCDE 0.46% 0.67% 0.50%
BBVA 0.48% 0.40% 0.30%
AFI      
The Economist      

Target by organisations

The position of each organisation in the ESADE Economic Target represents the average deviation of its forecasts over the last three years.

Deviation trend

The average deviation is the average of the deviations for all organisations for the year.

Actual GDP is published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) in the January after the year studied.