Between 2013 (the historical peak) and 2023, Spain lost 450,000 children under the age of 16, that is, potential pupils in the compulsory stages of early childhood and compulsory education. By 2037 the figure will exceed 1 million children. The education system will go from having to absorb 7.5 million to fewer than 6.5 million students. In this brief, we offer a much-needed long-term view of the education system as a whole, and analyse the impact that demographic decline is having on the system and the opportunity that greater resources per pupil represent for improving equity and quality in education in Spain.<\/p>\n
The impact of demographic decline will vary by educational stage and by territory:<\/p>\n
\u2192 By educational stage. <\/strong>Compulsory Secondary Education (ESO) will lose 25% of its potential pupils by 2037 from its peak: from almost 2.1 million children aged 12-15 today to 1.6 \u2192 By territory. <\/strong>Provinces such as Zamora, Le\u00f3n, Palencia, Albacete or Ja\u00e9n will lose more than a third of the under-16 population they had in 2013. But others will lose less than 10% (Madrid, Barcelona) or even nothing at all (Navarre, the Balearic Islands).<\/p>\n If, as seems likely, public investment does not fall and remains at current levels, public spending per pupil will grow substantially, as it already did in the pre-pandemic years Education authorities have two options. Leave things as they are, or redesign the school network to use the surplus resources strategically. The option of doing nothing, maintaining the current map for as long as resources allow, means not changing the number of classrooms or schools, preserving the current network to protect (in theory) proximity to school and small municipalities. But it does so at the enormous cost of producing a more inefficient and less equitable system, and it postpones decisions that will have to be drastic in the future instead of allowing time to manage them gradually.<\/p>\n The decision is not between closing or not closing schools, but between closing schools and class groups now and doing it well, or closing them in 10 years and doing it badly. We propose actively taking on the restructuring of the school network, with sufficient compensation mechanisms (for example, free transport and school meal plans for pupils who have to travel further), in schools and class groups wherever they have become too small.<\/p>\n Once the restructuring process is under way, it will be possible to redirect the surplus to where it can have a fairer and more productive impact. We propose six complementary areas in which to invest these resources:<\/p>\n 1. Reducing the pupil-teacher ratio and the size of the most crowded classrooms.<\/p>\n 2. Extending time in school, academic support and childcare to move more effectively towards greater equality of opportunity.<\/p>\n 3. Reforming teacher policies and improving teachers’ working conditions.<\/p>\n 4. Strengthening educational change at school level and promoting greater collaboration among teachers.<\/p>\n 5. Continuing to expand first-cycle early childhood education (0-3) and Vocational Training.<\/p>\n 6. Implementing more effective policies against school segregation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Between 2013 (the historical peak) and 2023, Spain lost 450,000 children under the age of 16, that is, potential pupils in the compulsory stages of early childhood and compulsory education. By 2037 the figure will exceed 1 million children. The education system will go from having to absorb 7.5 million to fewer than 6.5 million […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10299,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\nmillion in 2037. Primary education will reach its low point earlier, in 2032, somewhat below 2.4 million, far from the 3 million pupils of 2017.<\/p>\n
\n(2013-18). The relevant question then becomes: what should we do with this surplus of public resources? What should we invest it in?<\/p>\n