{"id":13904,"date":"2023-07-19T13:00:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T11:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&p=13904"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:25:48","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:25:48","slug":"macroinsights-02","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #02"},"content":{"rendered":"

Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for September 2023.<\/p>\n

Macro outlook<\/strong><\/p>\n

The outlook for the Spanish economy is positive in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.6% in Q2 2023, in line with the Q1 2023 figure.<\/p>\n

However, specific indicators show mixed trends: some consumption and labour market indicators have had a negative cumulative impact. By contrast, construction and industrial production have managed to offset this.<\/p>\n

Global focus<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

European monetary policy will move between two scenarios in the coming months:<\/p>\n

\u2192 Optimistic: the end of rate hikes is very close; rates will fall from summer 2024.<\/p>\n

\u2192 Pessimistic: rates will keep climbing and will start to ease in mid-2025.<\/p>\n

The final scenario will depend above all on the evolution of headline inflation (and, increasingly, core inflation), followed by other factors such as credit trends and conditions or wage bargaining.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

Micro perspective<\/strong><\/p>\n

Monetary policy tightening is feeding through to credit, with lower demand and more restrictive conditions on the supply side. Households’ initial balance sheet strength to withstand rising rates is significant, but lower-income mortgage holders are a vulnerable group that could be seriously affected if rates keep rising or remain high for a long time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for September 2023. Macro outlook The outlook for the Spanish economy is positive in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.6% in Q2 2023, in line with the Q1 2023 figure. However, specific indicators show mixed trends: […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10264,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for September 2023. Macro outlook The outlook for the Spanish economy is positive in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.6% in Q2 2023, in line with the Q1 2023 figure. However, specific indicators show mixed trends: […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T15:25:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1129\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"945\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@esadeecpol\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/\",\"name\":\"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-07-19T11:00:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-16T15:25:48+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg\",\"width\":1129,\"height\":945},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publicaciones\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/publicaciones\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"MacroInsights #02\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/\",\"name\":\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","og_description":"Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for September 2023. Macro outlook The outlook for the Spanish economy is positive in the short term: the RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of around +0.6% in Q2 2023, in line with the Q1 2023 figure. However, specific indicators show mixed trends: […]","og_url":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/","og_site_name":"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","article_modified_time":"2026-09-16T15:25:48+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1129,"height":945,"url":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@esadeecpol","twitter_misc":{"Estimated reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/","url":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/","name":"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg","datePublished":"2023-07-19T11:00:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-09-16T15:25:48+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg","contentUrl":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/fondo_EY.jpg","width":1129,"height":945},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-02\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Portada","item":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Publicaciones","item":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/publicaciones\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"MacroInsights #02"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website","url":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/","name":"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publicaciones\/13904"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publicaciones"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/publicaciones"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publicaciones\/13904\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13905,"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publicaciones\/13904\/revisions\/13905"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10264"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13904"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}