{"id":13810,"date":"2024-05-10T12:04:12","date_gmt":"2024-05-10T10:04:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&p=13810"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:03:41","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:03:41","slug":"macroinsights-07","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-07\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #07"},"content":{"rendered":"

Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for May 2024.<\/p>\n

Macro outlook<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates that quarterly GDP growth could reach +0.5% in Q2 2024. Annual growth would stand at 2.3%, two tenths lower than in 2023 but triple the figure projected for the Eurozone. All of this is conditioned by an unstable political environment both nationally and at European level:<\/p>\n

– The European Parliament elections and the subsequent negotiations will produce a more fragmented environment, with potential consequences for decarbonisation, industrial, migration, defence or security policies.<\/p>\n

– Monetary policy decisions: the ECB is most likely to start its rate-cutting cycle in June, but whether it will continue in July and September is unclear.<\/p>\n

Global focus<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Digitalisation will play a central role in the need to align industrial and competitive momentum with strategic autonomy in the EU, with six priority fronts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Connectivity infrastructure with a focus on 5G.<\/li>\n
  2. Critical raw materials both in energy-intensive industries (high dependence on fossil energy, aluminium, steel, lithium, cobalt) and in green technology (high dependence on minerals needed for electronic components: lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, chromium, molybdenum).<\/li>\n
  3. Semiconductors, where the EU does not lead in any stage of the value chain (the US dominates the high value-added stages, Asia dominates production).<\/li>\n
  4. Consolidation of a single data market.<\/li>\n
  5. Digital transformation of industrial companies.<\/li>\n
  6. Increasing digital skills within companies.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    These 6 fronts are structured around 16 specific KPIs that will measure progress in digitalisation country by country and across the EU as a whole.<\/p>\n

    Micro perspective<\/strong><\/h3>\n

    To make the most of this digitalisation drive, Spanish companies should especially consider three keys in light of the data:<\/p>\n

    \u00b7 Focus on more sophisticated technologies and tools, where they lag furthest behind, rather than on basic and intermediate skills.<\/p>\n

    \u00b7 Better identify their technological dependencies and devote more resources to diversifying and securing supply sources of critical inputs.<\/p>\n

    \u00b7 Leverage growth, since digitalisation multiplies the economies of scale of business growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for May 2024. Macro outlook The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates that quarterly GDP growth could reach +0.5% in Q2 2024. Annual growth would stand at 2.3%, two tenths lower than in 2023 but triple the figure projected for the Eurozone. All of this is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11502,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMacroInsights #07 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-07\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #07 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Macro outlook, global focus and micro perspective for May 2024. Macro outlook The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates that quarterly GDP growth could reach +0.5% in Q2 2024. Annual growth would stand at 2.3%, two tenths lower than in 2023 but triple the figure projected for the Eurozone. 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