{"id":13376,"date":"2026-06-04T10:56:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T08:56:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/publicaciones\/macro-insights-may-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T10:56:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T08:56:47","slug":"macro-insights-may-2026","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macro-insights-may-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Macro Insights \u2013 May 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>**Castellano (original)**<br \/>\n&#8220;`html<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\">El RealTimeTracker, nuestro modelo de seguimiento y pron\u00f3stico en tiempo real, estima un <b>crecimiento del PIB del 0,5% en el 2T26<\/b>, rebajando de la tendencia de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">Demanda, confianza, oferta y mercado laboral contribuyen al crecimiento trimestral, lo que apunta a una diversificaci\u00f3n favorable de las fuentes de crecimiento.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">De confirmarse la desaceleraci\u00f3n, los mayores riesgos macro, las condiciones financieras m\u00e1s restrictivas, el repunte inflacionario y la moderaci\u00f3n de la demanda externa podr\u00edan acentuar la ralentizaci\u00f3n<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">La horquilla de <b>crecimiento anual del PIB<\/b> resultante para 2026 queda en el 2,1 &#8211; 2,3% en 2026, sujeta <\/span>a la duraci\u00f3n e intensidad de la incertidumbre internacional.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;`<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>**Catal\u00e0**<br \/>\n&#8220;`html<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\">El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima un <b>creixement del PIB del 0,5% en el 2T26<\/b>, per sota de la tend\u00e8ncia dels \u00faltims dos anys.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">Demanda, confian\u00e7a, oferta i mercat laboral contribueixen al creixement trimestral, la qual cosa apunta a una diversificaci\u00f3 favorable de les fonts de creixement.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">Si es confirma la desacceleraci\u00f3, els riscos macro m\u00e9s elevats, les condicions financeres m\u00e9s restrictives, el repunt inflacionari i la moderaci\u00f3 de la demanda externa podrien accentuar la ralentitzaci\u00f3.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">La forquilla de <b>creixement anual del PIB<\/b> resultant per al 2026 se situa entre el 2,1 i el 2,3% el 2026, subjecta <\/span>a la durada i la intensitat de la incertesa internacional.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;`<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>**English**<br \/>\n&#8220;`html<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p1\">The RealTimeTracker, our real-time monitoring and forecasting model, estimates <b>GDP growth of 0.5% in Q2 2026<\/b>, stepping down from the trend of the past two years.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">Demand, confidence, supply and the labour market all contribute to quarterly growth, pointing to a favourable diversification of growth sources.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\">Should the slowdown be confirmed, heightened macro risks, tighter financial conditions, the uptick in inflation and the moderation of external demand could amplify the deceleration.<\/li>\n<li class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The resulting <b>annual GDP growth<\/b> range for 2026 stands at 2.1\u20132.3% in 2026, subject <\/span>to the duration and intensity of international uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8220;`<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>**Castellano (original)** &#8220;`html El RealTimeTracker, nuestro modelo de seguimiento y pron\u00f3stico en tiempo real, estima un crecimiento del PIB del 0,5% en el 2T26, rebajando de la tendencia de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os. Demanda, confianza, oferta y mercado laboral contribuyen al crecimiento trimestral, lo que apunta a una diversificaci\u00f3n favorable de las fuentes de crecimiento. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":13379,"template":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Macro Insights \u2013 May 2026 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/publicaciones\/macro-insights-may-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Macro Insights \u2013 May 2026 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"**Castellano (original)** &#8220;`html El RealTimeTracker, nuestro modelo de seguimiento y pron\u00f3stico en tiempo real, estima un crecimiento del PIB del 0,5% en el 2T26, rebajando de la tendencia de los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os. Demanda, confianza, oferta y mercado laboral contribuyen al crecimiento trimestral, lo que apunta a una diversificaci\u00f3n favorable de las fuentes de crecimiento. 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