{"id":13086,"date":"2026-03-24T09:00:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T08:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/publicaciones\/informe-economico-y-financiero-38\/"},"modified":"2026-09-16T16:46:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T14:46:35","slug":"informe-economico-y-financiero-38","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/informe-economico-y-financiero-38\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero # 38 \u00b7 Europe, capabilities for a hostile world"},"content":{"rendered":"

Every six months, with the support of Banco Sabadell, Esade publishes the Informe Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero<\/em> (Economic and Financial Report), which now reaches its 38th edition under the title The Europe that is missing: capabilities for a hostile world<\/em>. Through it, Esade maintains its commitment to contributing to public debate with rigorous and plural analysis which, as a prestigious school and with the involvement of its entire academic community, reinforces its commitment to economic and social progress.<\/p>\n

In his welcome article, the Report’s academic director, Omar Rachedi, starts from an observation worth highlighting: Spain enters this year in a comparatively solid position, with GDP growing by 3.5% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, and forecasts of around 2.3% for 2026, figures that make it the most dynamic economy among the major eurozone powers. Rachedi warns, however, against complacency: around 60% of the recent expansion is explained by rising employment, and GDP per capita remains clearly below the European average. He also stresses that the economy can no longer be understood solely in terms of growth, inflation or employment, as geopolitics has returned to centre stage with hybrid warfare, technological coercion and the exploitation of strategic dependencies. The underlying message is twofold: there are solid reasons to acknowledge what Spain is doing well, but also to understand that prosperity will increasingly depend on the ability to combine openness and security, growth and productivity, competitiveness and democratic resilience.<\/p>\n

Next, the economic outlook note, by Josep M. Comajuncosa and Manuel Hidalgo, first examines the international scenario, where the global economy has weathered with relative success the disruption of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs, maintaining stable growth of 3.3% both in 2025 and in the forecasts for 2026 made before the conflict in the Middle East. The eurozone is posting weaker growth, of around 1.3%, while global inflation is trending downwards. The analysis identifies three major risks: the concentration of growth in a few sectors \u2014especially AI\u2014; a possible escalation of the trade war \u2014with tariffs at their highest levels in a century and the recent ruling by the US Supreme Court declaring the levies imposed under the IEEPA illegal\u2014; and the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran at the end of February 2026, which has de facto paralysed traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The note then analyses the Spanish economic situation, where growth remains robust but predominantly extensive. Nonetheless, it highlights positive signs such as the rebound in Total Factor Productivity \u2014the highest rate since 1995\u2014, the current account surplus, private sector deleveraging and the boom in non-tourism services exports. Among the bottlenecks, the housing squeeze stands out, with prices rising by 12.9% year-on-year and an insufficient supply of new construction, as well as the unfinished business of fiscal policy, with public debt still well above the European average.<\/p>\n

In the “Debate” section, four articles offer different perspectives on the European strategic challenge:<\/p>\n