{"id":11788,"date":"2024-11-13T10:32:27","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T09:32:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/publicaciones\/macroinsights-10\/"},"modified":"2024-11-21T12:21:10","modified_gmt":"2024-11-21T11:21:10","slug":"macroinsights-10","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #10"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>Macro analysis in partnership with EY Insights.<\/h3>\n<p>The RealTimeTracker, our real-time tracking and forecasting model, estimates that GDP quarterly growth will be at +0.6% in Q4 2024, showing moderation compared to previous quarters.<\/p>\n<p>Service indicators drove this GDP growth in the quarter, while investment in capital goods and construction contributed less. Despite this moderation, we anticipate growth of +3.1% in 2024. This dynamism in the Spanish economy has significantly outpaced early-year forecasts. Very preliminarily, we project more moderate rates for next year, slightly above 2% according to the IMF.<\/p>\n<p>*It should be noted that these estimates still do not take into account the effects of the recent DANA storm, which we anticipate to be significant.<\/p>\n<p>In the risk matrix surrounding these forecasts, the following stand out:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Geopolitical and financial valuation risks remain high, but lower inflation and economic cooling are stabilizing the overall outlook. Public debt and financial intermediation are stable; finances for companies and households are improving.<\/li>\n<li>Despite current stability, high debt and non-banking leverage create risks in the face of potential shocks in an uncertain geopolitical context.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>On the positive side:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The moderate upturn in growth in the Eurozone: up to 0.4% in Q3 2024, led by Ireland, Spain, and France, although slow growth is anticipated with fiscal and industrial restructuring challenges.<\/li>\n<li>Inflation near 2% has allowed the ECB to cut rates, with a further reduction possible in December.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Macro analysis in partnership with EY Insights. The RealTimeTracker, our real-time tracking and forecasting model, estimates that GDP quarterly growth will be at +0.6% in Q4 2024, showing moderation compared to previous quarters. Service indicators drove this GDP growth in the quarter, while investment in capital goods and construction contributed less. Despite this moderation, we [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11785,"template":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Macro analysis in partnership with EY Insights. The RealTimeTracker, our real-time tracking and forecasting model, estimates that GDP quarterly growth will be at +0.6% in Q4 2024, showing moderation compared to previous quarters. Service indicators drove this GDP growth in the quarter, while investment in capital goods and construction contributed less. Despite this moderation, we [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-11-21T11:21:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/macroinsights10.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1983\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1042\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@esadeecpol\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/\",\"name\":\"MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/macroinsights10.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-13T09:32:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-11-21T11:21:10+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/macroinsights10.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/macroinsights10.jpg\",\"width\":1983,\"height\":1042},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publicaciones\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/publicaciones\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"MacroInsights #10\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/\",\"name\":\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/en\/publications\/macroinsights-10\/","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","og_description":"Macro analysis in partnership with EY Insights. The RealTimeTracker, our real-time tracking and forecasting model, estimates that GDP quarterly growth will be at +0.6% in Q4 2024, showing moderation compared to previous quarters. Service indicators drove this GDP growth in the quarter, while investment in capital goods and construction contributed less. 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