{"id":662,"date":"2020-05-13T16:41:30","date_gmt":"2020-05-13T14:41:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=662"},"modified":"2021-01-07T17:48:40","modified_gmt":"2021-01-07T16:48:40","slug":"impacte-economic-politiques-publiques","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/impacte-economic-politiques-publiques\/","title":{"rendered":"Impacte econ\u00f2mic i pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques per orientar la fase de transici\u00f3"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>EsadeEcPol | Policy Insight<\/h2>\n<h4 class=\"t-title3\">Resum executiu<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>En aquesta nota fem servir sup\u00f2sits basats en l&#8217;<strong>evid\u00e8ncia sanit\u00e0ria disponible per tra\u00e7ar tres possibles escenaris d&#8217;impacte econ\u00f2mic<\/strong>. Segons les nostres estimacions, a Espanya tindr\u00edem entre un 5 i un 18 per cent de prevalen\u00e7a sobre el total de la poblaci\u00f3. Aix\u00f2 implicaria que estem encara en una etapa inicial de desenvolupament del virus. En el nostre escenari central, assumim que no hi haur\u00e0 vacuna fins a 2021 i preveiem ressorgiments parcials del virus en moments i \u00e0rees concretes del pa\u00eds que podrien dur a quarantenes parcials intermitents i regionalitzades fins a final del 2020.<\/li>\n<li>Amb les dades disponibles de mobilitat en les passades setmanes, estimem que <strong>aquestes quarantenes parcials es traduiran en una reducci\u00f3 de la mobilitat de l&#8217;40-50%<\/strong>. Aix\u00f2 implicaria, a l&#8217;escenari base, una caiguda del PIB propera al -15% el 2020 i un rebot al 2021 del 12%. La taxa d&#8217;atur arribaria a un pic del 22% (per sobre del 30%, si inclogu\u00e9ssim els ERTO). A l&#8217;escenari optimista, en qu\u00e8 s&#8217;aconsegueix un control relatiu de l&#8217;epid\u00e8mia i un menor cost en termes de mobilitat gr\u00e0cies a l&#8217;ampliaci\u00f3 de capacitat de proves, el PIB es contrauria al voltant del 9% el 2020. A l&#8217;escenari pessimista, assumint que es reprodueix un rebrot similar al de mar\u00e7-abril, el PIB es contrauria en un -20%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La probabilitat que Espanya s&#8217;acosti m\u00e9s a un d&#8217;aquests escenaris dep\u00e8n, en bona part, de l&#8217;efectivitat de les pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques que s&#8217;implementin<\/strong>. En l&#8217;\u00e0mbit sanitari, per apropar-se a l&#8217;escenari optimista, Espanya necessita (1) ampliar a gran escala la capacitat de mesurament, seguiment i a\u00efllament individual de casos; (2) dissenyar un model de dist\u00e0ncia f\u00edsica de precisi\u00f3, modular, condicional i territorialitzat, guiat per indicadors de detecci\u00f3 r\u00e0pida i basat en el criteri de major impacte a l&#8217;hora de reduir la taxa de contagi, al menor cost socioecon\u00f2mic possible.<\/li>\n<li>En l&#8217;\u00e0mbit de la pol\u00edtica econ\u00f2mica, a m\u00e9s de les mesures ja anunciades, per mitigar la destrucci\u00f3 de teixit productiu i reduir al m\u00e0xim el patiment social, Espanya, de forma priorit\u00e0ria, ha de: (1) <strong>assegurar la posada en marxa de sistemes m\u00e9s \u00e0gils de cobertura per pimes, aut\u00f2noms i col\u00b7lectius vulnerables<\/strong> que no estan coberts o no estan rebent la liquiditat necess\u00e0ria a temps i (2) flexibilitzar i estendre en el temps l&#8217;acc\u00e9s als ERTO com a instrument clau per evitar acomiadaments en el llarg per\u00edode de transici\u00f3. Per la seva banda, la Uni\u00f3 Europea ha de (1) millorar les condicions dels pr\u00e9stecs del MEDE per assegurar que resulten atractius per als pa\u00efsos que els puguin necessitar i (2) concretar el finan\u00e7ament i el contingut del fons europeu de recuperaci\u00f3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En aquesta nota fem servir sup\u00f2sits basats en l&#8217;evid\u00e8ncia sanit\u00e0ria disponible per tra\u00e7ar tres possibles escenaris d&#8217;impacte econ\u00f2mic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":352,"template":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Impacte econ\u00f2mic i pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques per orientar la fase de transici\u00f3 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En aquesta nota fem servir sup\u00f2sits basats en l&#039;evid\u00e8ncia sanit\u00e0ria disponible per tra\u00e7ar tres possibles escenaris d&#039;impacte econ\u00f2mic.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/impacte-economic-politiques-publiques\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Impacte econ\u00f2mic i pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques per orientar la fase de transici\u00f3 - 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