{"id":1892,"date":"2020-11-13T10:00:33","date_gmt":"2020-11-13T09:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=1892"},"modified":"2026-09-16T18:40:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T16:40:12","slug":"pressupostos-2021-valoracio","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/pressupostos-2021-valoracio\/","title":{"rendered":"Pressupostos 2021: una valoraci\u00f3 realista"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>EsadeEcPol | Policy Insight<\/h2>\n<h4>Resum executiu<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>El quadre macroecon\u00f2mic en qu\u00e8 el Govern basa els pressupostos <strong>\u00e9s excessivament optimista<\/strong>, tant en la previsi\u00f3 d\u2019execuci\u00f3 dels fons europeus com en la previsi\u00f3 sobre l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 de la pand\u00e8mia. Com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia, <strong>a EsadeEcPol estimem que el creixement econ\u00f2mic de l\u2019any vinent ser\u00e0 lleugerament superior a la meitat del que espera el Govern<\/strong>, m\u00e9s a prop del 6% que del 10%.<\/li>\n<li>En un escenari m\u00e9s realista, tot i que favorable, suposant que s\u2019aconsegu\u00eds executar el 50% dels fons (i no el 100%, que \u00e9s el que estima el Govern), <strong>l\u2019impacte de les transfer\u00e8ncies europees en el creixement del 2021 ser\u00e0 la meitat dels 2,6 punts que estima el Govern<\/strong>. Aix\u00ed mateix, creiem que \u00e9s raonable suposar que, almenys fins a l\u2019estiu, continuarem en un escenari amb limitacions intermitents a l\u2019activitat, cosa que tamb\u00e9 es traduir\u00e0 en un creixement inferior a l\u2019estimat.<\/li>\n<li>Pel que fa als ingressos, fins i tot en un escenari optimista de fort creixement econ\u00f2mic, <strong>a EsadeEcPol esperem, en l\u00ednia amb les estimacions de l\u2019AIReF, que el govern recapti al voltant de dos de cada tres euros del que estima<\/strong> que recaptar\u00e0 com a conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncia de les pujades d\u2019impostos, uns 4.000 milions en lloc dels m\u00e9s de 6.000 milions addicionals que espera recaptar.<\/li>\n<li>Pel que fa a la despesa p\u00fablica, totes les partides augmenten de manera molt significativa, tamb\u00e9 partides no relacionades directament amb la pand\u00e8mia. La despesa corrent augmenta un 30%. <strong>Algunes d\u2019aquestes inversions contribuiran a l\u2019impuls de la productivitat<\/strong>, com les millores en ci\u00e8ncia, educaci\u00f3, digitalitzaci\u00f3 o tecnologies sostenibles, per\u00f2 si no van acompanyades de reformes estructurals les millores seran limitades.<\/li>\n<li>Els sous dels funcionaris pujaran per sobre del nivell de preus. En un context d\u2019endeutament alt\u00edssim i en qu\u00e8 amplis sectors de la poblaci\u00f3 han estat exposats a una vulnerabilitat econ\u00f2mica sense precedents, <strong>les transfer\u00e8ncies econ\u00f2miques cap a les ocupacions m\u00e9s protegides amb rendes relativament altes no semblen les m\u00e9s adequades per reduir les desigualtats<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Una part important de l\u2019augment de la despesa p\u00fablica, uns 5.000 milions, anir\u00e0 a la pujada de les pensions. En un context d\u2019inflaci\u00f3 negativa, aix\u00f2 suposa <strong>la pujada m\u00e9s gran del poder adquisitiu dels pensionistes des del 2015<\/strong>. Al llarg dels propers set anys, la pujada del poder adquisitiu dels pensionistes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A EsadeEcPol estimem que el creixement econ\u00f2mic de l&#8217;any vinent ser\u00e0 lleugerament superior a la meitat del creixement que espera el Govern.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":1885,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Pressupostos 2021: una valoraci\u00f3 realista - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"El quadre macroecon\u00f2mic en qu\u00e8 es basen els pressupostos del Govern espanyol \u00e9s excessivament optimista.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/pressupostos-2021-valoracio\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pressupostos 2021: una valoraci\u00f3 realista - 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