{"id":13918,"date":"2023-07-19T13:00:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-19T11:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&p=13918"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:28:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:28:04","slug":"macroinsights-02","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-02\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #02"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2023.<\/p>\n

Conjuntura macro<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les previsions de l\u2019economia espanyola s\u00f3n positives a curt termini: el RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima un creixement intertrimestral del PIB al voltant d\u2019un +0,6% el 2T23, en l\u00ednia amb el registre del 1T23.<\/p>\n

Ara b\u00e9, l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 d\u2019indicadors espec\u00edfics \u00e9s mixta: alguns indicadors de consum i de mercat de treball han tingut un impacte acumulat negatiu. En canvi, la construcci\u00f3 i la producci\u00f3 industrial ho han aconseguit compensar.<\/p>\n

Enfocament global<\/strong><\/p>\n

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L\u2019evoluci\u00f3 de la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria europea es mour\u00e0 en els propers mesos entre dos escenaris:<\/p>\n

\u2192 Optimista: la fi de les pujades \u00e9s molt a prop; els tipus baixaran a partir de l\u2019estiu del 2024.<\/p>\n

\u2192 Pessimista: els tipus continuaran pujant i comen\u00e7aran a relaxar-se a mitjan 2025.<\/p>\n

L\u2019escenari final dependr\u00e0 especialment de l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3 general (i, cada vegada m\u00e9s, de la subjacent), seguida d\u2019altres factors com l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 i les condicions del cr\u00e8dit o la negociaci\u00f3 salarial.<\/p>\n

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Perspectiva micro<\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u2019enduriment de la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria s\u2019est\u00e0 transmetent al cr\u00e8dit, amb una demanda m\u00e9s baixa i condicions m\u00e9s restrictives per part de l\u2019oferta. La fortalesa inicial del balan\u00e7 de les llars per resistir la pujada de tipus \u00e9s significativa, per\u00f2 els deutors hipotecaris de renda m\u00e9s baixa constitueixen un col\u00b7lectiu vulnerable que es podria veure seriosament afectat si els tipus continuen pujant o es mantenen alts durant molt de temps.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2023. Conjuntura macro Les previsions de l\u2019economia espanyola s\u00f3n positives a curt termini: el RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima un creixement intertrimestral del PIB al voltant d\u2019un +0,6% el 2T23, en l\u00ednia amb el registre del 1T23. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10264,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-02\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #02 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2023. Conjuntura macro Les previsions de l\u2019economia espanyola s\u00f3n positives a curt termini: el RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima un creixement intertrimestral del PIB al voltant d\u2019un +0,6% el 2T23, en l\u00ednia amb el registre del 1T23. 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