{"id":13878,"date":"2023-11-17T08:45:42","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T07:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=13878"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:18:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:18:36","slug":"lexcepcio-iberica-estimacio-de-limpacte-dun-limit-al-preu-del-gas-per-a-la-generacio-electrica-sobre-els-preus-al-consumidor-i-la-dinamica-del-mercat","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/lexcepcio-iberica-estimacio-de-limpacte-dun-limit-al-preu-del-gas-per-a-la-generacio-electrica-sobre-els-preus-al-consumidor-i-la-dinamica-del-mercat\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019excepci\u00f3 ib\u00e8rica: estimaci\u00f3 de l\u2019impacte d\u2019un l\u00edmit al preu del gas per a la generaci\u00f3 el\u00e8ctrica sobre els preus al consumidor i la din\u00e0mica del mercat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A mesura que augmenta la volatilitat dels preus dels mercats energ\u00e8tics a curt termini a causa de xocs ex\u00f2gens i del car\u00e0cter canviant del mix energ\u00e8tic, les intervencions de mercat guanyen import\u00e0ncia en el debat de pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques. Per tant, una quantificaci\u00f3 precisa i robusta del seu impacte esdev\u00e9 essencial. Aquest article fa una an\u00e0lisi de causalitat per avaluar el \u00abtope del gas\u00bb espanyol per a la generaci\u00f3 el\u00e8ctrica durant la crisi energ\u00e8tica del 2022. Fem servir models bayesians de s\u00e8ries temporals estructurals per a\u00efllar-ne l\u2019impacte sobre els consumidors afectats, principalment els acollits a la tarifa regulada, de juny a desembre de 2022. Els nostres resultats mostren que el mecanisme va aconseguir abaixar els preus respecte a un escenari contrafactual sense la intervenci\u00f3. Tanmateix, la pol\u00edtica tamb\u00e9 va comportar un augment de la generaci\u00f3 el\u00e8ctrica de les centrals de cicle combinat de gas. A m\u00e9s, les exportacions a Fran\u00e7a van augmentar m\u00e9s d\u2019un 80% despr\u00e9s de la implementaci\u00f3, ja que els preus majoristes espanyols van passar a ser m\u00e9s barats que els francesos. La nostra an\u00e0lisi (1) proporciona una quantificaci\u00f3 precisa d\u2019una de les intervencions en el mercat energ\u00e8tic amb m\u00e9s conseq\u00fc\u00e8ncies dels \u00faltims anys; (2) demostra l\u2019\u00fas profit\u00f3s d\u2019un m\u00e8tode d\u2019avaluaci\u00f3 nou per a la pol\u00edtica energ\u00e8tica; (3) posa de manifest la disjuntiva entre l\u2019objectiu a curt termini d\u2019alleujar els preus als consumidors i els objectius a llarg termini de reducci\u00f3 dels combustibles f\u00f2ssils i de descarbonitzaci\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>Citaci\u00f3 suggerida:<\/p>\n<p>Collado, N., Galindo, J., Hidalgo, M., and Mateo, R. (2022). <em>The Iberian Exception: Estimating the Impact of a Cap on Gas Prices for Electricity Generation on Consumer Prices and Market Dynamics.<\/em> Available at SSRN: <a href=\"https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=4631656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/ssrn.com\/abstract=4631656<\/a> or <a class=\"textlink\" href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.4631656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.2139\/ssrn.4631656<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A mesura que augmenta la volatilitat dels preus dels mercats energ\u00e8tics a curt termini a causa de xocs ex\u00f2gens i del car\u00e0cter canviant del mix energ\u00e8tic, les intervencions de mercat guanyen import\u00e0ncia en el debat de pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques. Per tant, una quantificaci\u00f3 precisa i robusta del seu impacte esdev\u00e9 essencial. Aquest article fa una an\u00e0lisi [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10551,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019excepci\u00f3 ib\u00e8rica: estimaci\u00f3 de l\u2019impacte d\u2019un l\u00edmit al preu del gas per a la generaci\u00f3 el\u00e8ctrica sobre els preus al consumidor i la din\u00e0mica del mercat - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/lexcepcio-iberica-estimacio-de-limpacte-dun-limit-al-preu-del-gas-per-a-la-generacio-electrica-sobre-els-preus-al-consumidor-i-la-dinamica-del-mercat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L\u2019excepci\u00f3 ib\u00e8rica: estimaci\u00f3 de l\u2019impacte d\u2019un l\u00edmit al preu del gas per a la generaci\u00f3 el\u00e8ctrica sobre els preus al consumidor i la din\u00e0mica del mercat - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A mesura que augmenta la volatilitat dels preus dels mercats energ\u00e8tics a curt termini a causa de xocs ex\u00f2gens i del car\u00e0cter canviant del mix energ\u00e8tic, les intervencions de mercat guanyen import\u00e0ncia en el debat de pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques. 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