{"id":13845,"date":"2024-01-25T11:59:39","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T10:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=13845"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:10:21","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:10:21","slug":"macroinsights-05","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-05\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #05"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al gener de 2024.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conjuntura macro<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el PIB espanyol tancar\u00e0 amb un +0,5% el 4T23. Aix\u00ed, calculem que el 2023 s\u2019hauria tancat amb un avan\u00e7 del +2,4%. De manera preliminar, per al 1T24 anticipem un creixement similar al del trimestre passat.<\/p>\n<p>La previsi\u00f3 anual apunta a un creixement del +1,7% per al 2024, si b\u00e9 l\u2019any comen\u00e7a amb nous riscos que injecten incertesa addicional, especialment la inestabilitat geopol\u00edtica, amb una afectaci\u00f3 especial al comer\u00e7 internacional.<\/p>\n<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 1\">\n<div class=\"section\">\n<div class=\"layoutArea\">\n<div class=\"column\">\n<p><strong>Enfocament global<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Malgrat la incertesa conjuntural, la transici\u00f3 cap a una economia neutra en emissions, concretada en plans de transici\u00f3 empresarials, continua sent un repte creixent. Amb aquesta finalitat, la UE acaba d\u2019aprovar la Directiva CS3D, que inicialment els exigeix per a les empreses de &gt;500 empleats i una facturaci\u00f3 de &gt;150M\u20ac; abasta tota la cadena de valor excepte els serveis financers, amb objectius a terminis quinquennals coincidents amb les metes d\u2019emissions de la UE per al 2030 i el 2050; inclou incentius en forma de remuneraci\u00f3 variable dels consellers en empreses de &gt;1.000 empleats; i preveu sancions per infraccions de fins al 5% de la facturaci\u00f3 neta global.<\/p>\n<p>El contingut espec\u00edfic encara no est\u00e0 estandarditzat, per\u00f2 s\u2019espera que requereixi (1) una traject\u00f2ria prospectiva, (2) un per\u00edmetre ampli, (3) mesures consistents i (4) una governan\u00e7a s\u00f2lida. La seva concreci\u00f3 arribar\u00e0 (condicionada al cicle electoral, amb les eleccions europees de juny i la posterior formaci\u00f3 d\u2019una nova Comissi\u00f3) amb el desenvolupament de les directives centrades en reporting i due diligence, o amb les normes contra el greenwashing en negociaci\u00f3, amb l\u2019horitz\u00f3 posat en la segona meitat d\u2019aquest any o el 2025.<\/p>\n<div class=\"page\" title=\"Page 1\">\n<div class=\"section\">\n<div class=\"layoutArea\">\n<div class=\"column\">\n<p><strong>Perspectiva micro<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En l\u2019\u00e0mbit espec\u00edfic dels plans de transici\u00f3, i a l\u2019espera de la incertesa regulat\u00f2ria condicionada pel cicle electoral, elaborar un pla de transici\u00f3 centrat en l\u2019alineaci\u00f3 de les inversions de l\u2019empresa amb la nova Taxonomia verda, que estableix l\u00edmits per qualificar activitats com a sostenibles, permetria accedir a finan\u00e7ament mitjan\u00e7ant pr\u00e9stecs o bons verds, i facilitaria la converg\u00e8ncia d\u2019interessos entre empreses financeres i no financeres.<\/p>\n<p>Obrint el focus, a la llum de la nostra an\u00e0lisi, tant l\u2019avan\u00e7 en la descarbonitzaci\u00f3 com el conjunt de les decisions empresarials hauran d\u2019incorporar necess\u00e0riament:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>La revisi\u00f3 de rutes comercials i modes de transport, especialment per a les \u00e0rees productives en qu\u00e8 la disponibilitat dels b\u00e9ns necessaris per descarbonitzar les cadenes de subministrament es vegi afectada pels colls d\u2019ampolla emergents en les rutes mar\u00edtimes.<\/li>\n<li>La incertesa sobre el marge de finan\u00e7ament per a la inversi\u00f3 (en mat\u00e8ria de transici\u00f3 o en qualsevol altra), que dep\u00e8n de la traject\u00f2ria de la pol\u00edtica monet\u00e0ria i de les expectatives dels mercats al respecte, que ara situen l\u2019inici del cicle de baixades de tipus en el segon semestre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al gener de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el PIB espanyol tancar\u00e0 amb un +0,5% el 4T23. Aix\u00ed, calculem que el 2023 s\u2019hauria tancat amb un avan\u00e7 del +2,4%. De manera preliminar, per al 1T24 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":10952,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MacroInsights #05 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-05\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #05 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al gener de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el PIB espanyol tancar\u00e0 amb un +0,5% el 4T23. Aix\u00ed, calculem que el 2023 s\u2019hauria tancat amb un avan\u00e7 del +2,4%. 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