{"id":13834,"date":"2024-09-13T10:35:03","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T08:35:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=13834"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:06:38","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:06:38","slug":"macro-insights-09","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/","title":{"rendered":"Macro Insights #09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2024.<\/p>\n<h3>Conjuntura macro<\/h3>\n<p>El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB rondaria el +0,6% trimestral el 3T24, i es moderaria lleugerament respecte al 0,8% del 1T i el 2T. Aix\u00f2 introdueix biaixos alcistes en les projeccions per al conjunt de l\u2019any, i empeny mig punt amunt la nostra previsi\u00f3 anual: fins al +2,8%.<\/p>\n<h3>Enfocament global<\/h3>\n<p>Despr\u00e9s d\u2019anys de pausa for\u00e7ada pels <i>shocks<\/i> externs, la UE t\u00e9 noves regles fiscals. A partir d\u2019ara, Espanya i la resta de pa\u00efsos estan obligats a elaborar plans de traject\u00f2ria fiscal que, en un marge m\u00ednim de 4 anys, assegurin un d\u00e8ficit i un deute per sota dels nivells comunament establerts, i que especifiquin tamb\u00e9 inversions i reformes.<\/p>\n<p>El nou marc es planteja com a m\u00e9s flexible i adaptable a cada pa\u00eds, per\u00f2 fins que no es posi en marxa no en veurem els resultats reals pel que fa a assolir l\u2019objectiu desitjat sense impedir en exc\u00e9s inversions de llarg abast (defensa, descarbonitzaci\u00f3, digitalitzaci\u00f3) ni desfermar crisis pol\u00edtiques com la de 2010-2015.<\/p>\n<h3>Perspectiva micro<\/h3>\n<p>En aquest nou marc, la fragilitat de la situaci\u00f3 fiscal espanyola (d\u00e8ficit i deute per sobre dels l\u00edmits; perfil demogr\u00e0fic en declivi amb el conseg\u00fcent increment sostingut de la despesa estructural) suposar\u00e0 una prova especialment dura: l\u2019Autoritat Fiscal Independent (AIREF, que de fet tindr\u00e0 un rol supervisor en el pla en coordinaci\u00f3 amb la Comissi\u00f3) estima que l\u2019ajust fiscal arribaria a 0,64 punts del PIB (9.000M\u20ac) entre 2025 i 2028.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c9s previsible que part d\u2019aquest ajust recaigui sobre les empreses mitjan\u00e7ant contribucions impositives m\u00e9s altes, o b\u00e9 mantenint les existents, fins ara plantejades com a transit\u00f2ries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB rondaria el +0,6% trimestral el 3T24, i es moderaria lleugerament respecte al 0,8% del 1T i el 2T. Aix\u00f2 introdueix biaixos alcistes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11708,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Macro Insights #09 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Macro Insights #09 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB rondaria el +0,6% trimestral el 3T24, i es moderaria lleugerament respecte al 0,8% del 1T i el 2T. Aix\u00f2 introdueix biaixos alcistes [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T15:06:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-12-at-20.52.45.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"856\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"526\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@esadeecpol\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Temps estimat de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minuts\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/\",\"name\":\"Macro Insights #09 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-12-at-20.52.45.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-09-13T08:35:03+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-16T15:06:38+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"ca\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"ca\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-12-at-20.52.45.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-12-at-20.52.45.png\",\"width\":856,\"height\":526},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Portada\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Publicaciones\",\"item\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/publicaciones\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Macro Insights #09\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/#website\",\"url\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/\",\"name\":\"Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/es\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"ca\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Macro Insights #09 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macro-insights-09\/","og_locale":"ca_ES","og_type":"article","og_title":"Macro Insights #09 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol","og_description":"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al setembre de 2024. 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