{"id":13828,"date":"2024-06-20T13:29:41","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T11:29:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&p=13828"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:06:28","slug":"macroinsights-08","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-08\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #08"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al juny de 2024.<\/p>\n

Conjuntura macro<\/strong><\/h3>\n

El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria entre el +0,4% i el +0,5% el 2T24, i es moderaria respecte al 0,7% del 1T24. El balan\u00e7 de riscos no ha canviat substancialment i l\u2019avan\u00e7 anual es mantindria en el +2,3%, tot i que amb un lleu biaix baixista.<\/p>\n

Enfocament global<\/strong><\/h3>\n

La Uni\u00f3 Banc\u00e0ria i la Uni\u00f3 del Mercat de Capitals constitueixen les dues fites m\u00e9s rellevants en l\u2019horitz\u00f3 de construir m\u00fascul de capital com\u00fa a Europa.<\/p>\n

– La crisi de l\u2019euro va impulsar la creaci\u00f3 de la Uni\u00f3 Banc\u00e0ria el 2014, que inclou una normativa unificada, la supervisi\u00f3 de 112 bancs significatius sota el BCE i el Mecanisme \u00danic de Resoluci\u00f3. Encara queda per completar una asseguran\u00e7a de dip\u00f2sits comuna, la primera fase de la qual va ser reactivada pel Parlament Europeu el mar\u00e7 de 2024. S\u2019espera que s\u2019adopti el 2025, amb una acumulaci\u00f3 progressiva de fons sense exigir noves aportacions als bancs en pa\u00efsos com Espanya. El 2029, la Comissi\u00f3 presentar\u00e0 una nova proposta per avan\u00e7ar cap a la mutualitzaci\u00f3 plena del fons.<\/p>\n

– La Uni\u00f3 del Mercat de Capitals \u00e9s en una fase m\u00e9s embrion\u00e0ria i dep\u00e8n de l\u2019impuls que rebi en aquest nou cicle pol\u00edtic europeu, un cop superades barreres conjunturals (Brexit, pand\u00e8mia). Les alternatives considerades en aquest context van des de les m\u00e9s coordinades, com una uni\u00f3 d\u2019estalvis i inversi\u00f3 (proposta Letta), fins a les unions de diverses velocitats (que posen sobre la taula Fran\u00e7a o Alemanya). La propera Comissi\u00f3 i el Consell donaran senyals des de finals del 2024\/inicis del 2025 sobre la voluntat pol\u00edtica i les rutes m\u00e9s probables.<\/p>\n

Perspectiva micro<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Hi ha un desajust considerable entre l\u2019oferta (insuficient) i la demanda de capital a la zona euro: un 40% de les empreses enquestades pel BCE van assenyalar com a molt significativa la dificultat de fer inversions verdes per aquesta ra\u00f3.<\/p>\n

A aix\u00f2 s\u2019hi afegeix que la UE t\u00e9 una capitalitzaci\u00f3 esbiaixada cap a la banca, amb mercats financers m\u00e9s limitats que els dels EUA, cosa que llastra les capacitats d\u2019inversi\u00f3 de les empreses europees i les transformacions pendents.<\/p>\n

Si la Uni\u00f3 del Mercat de Capitals culmin\u00e9s, empreses i estalviadors en sectors d\u2019alt contingut innovador es podrien beneficiar de mercats m\u00e9s profunds. Suposant que gr\u00e0cies a aix\u00f2 els pa\u00efsos de la UE27 se situessin en l\u2019equivalent del top 25% actual en rendiment financer i de capitals, s\u2019obtindria fins a mig bili\u00f3 de finan\u00e7ament per any per a tota la UE27, segons projeccions d\u2019escenaris de New Financial. A Espanya, aix\u00f2 implicaria, d\u2019acord amb aquest think tank financer, fins a 1.200M\u20ac de capital inicial addicional en sortides a borsa per any, 19.000M\u20ac en emissions de bons o 15.700M\u20ac en capitalitzaci\u00f3 de pimes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al juny de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria entre el +0,4% i el +0,5% el 2T24, i es moderaria respecte al 0,7% del 1T24. El balan\u00e7 de riscos […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11581,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMacroInsights #08 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-08\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #08 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al juny de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria entre el +0,4% i el +0,5% el 2T24, i es moderaria respecte al 0,7% del 1T24. 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