{"id":13801,"date":"2024-11-13T10:30:03","date_gmt":"2024-11-13T09:30:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&#038;p=13801"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:00:23","slug":"macroinsights-10","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-10\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #10"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3>An\u00e0lisi macro en col\u00b7laboraci\u00f3 amb EY Insights.<\/h3>\n<p>El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria en un +0,6% el 4T24, i es moderaria respecte als trimestres previs.<\/p>\n<p>Els indicadors de serveis van impulsar aquest creixement del PIB en el trimestre, mentre que la inversi\u00f3 en b\u00e9ns d\u2019equipament i en construcci\u00f3 hi va aportar menys. Malgrat la moderaci\u00f3, anticipem un creixement del +3,1% el 2024. Aquest dinamisme de l\u2019economia espanyola ha superat notablement els pron\u00f2stics de principis d\u2019any. De manera molt preliminar, projectem taxes m\u00e9s moderades per a l\u2019any vinent, una mica superiors al 2% segons l\u2019FMI.<\/p>\n<p>*Cal tenir en compte que aquestes estimacions encara no contemplen els efectes de la DANA, que preveiem significatius.<\/p>\n<p>En el quadre de riscos al voltant d\u2019aquests pron\u00f2stics cal destacar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Els riscos geopol\u00edtics i de valoraci\u00f3 financera continuen alts, per\u00f2 la inflaci\u00f3 m\u00e9s baixa i el refredament econ\u00f2mic estabilitzen el quadre general. El deute p\u00fablic i la intermediaci\u00f3 financera s\u00f3n estables; milloren les finances d\u2019empreses i fam\u00edlies.<\/li>\n<li>Malgrat l\u2019estabilitat actual, l\u2019elevat deute i l\u2019apalancament no bancari generen riscos davant de possibles xocs en un context geopol\u00edtic incert.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A l\u2019altre costat de la balan\u00e7a, contrasta positivament:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>El repunt moderat del creixement a la zona euro: fins a un 0,4% el 3T24, liderat per Irlanda, Espanya i Fran\u00e7a, tot i que s\u2019anticipa un creixement lent amb desafiaments fiscals i de reconversi\u00f3 industrial.<\/li>\n<li>La inflaci\u00f3 a prop del 2% ha perm\u00e8s al BCE retallar els tipus, amb una nova reducci\u00f3 possible al desembre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An\u00e0lisi macro en col\u00b7laboraci\u00f3 amb EY Insights. El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria en un +0,6% el 4T24, i es moderaria respecte als trimestres previs. Els indicadors de serveis van impulsar aquest creixement del PIB en el trimestre, mentre que [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11783,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-10\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #10 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An\u00e0lisi macro en col\u00b7laboraci\u00f3 amb EY Insights. El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria en un +0,6% el 4T24, i es moderaria respecte als trimestres previs. 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El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB se situaria en un +0,6% el 4T24, i es moderaria respecte als trimestres previs. 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