{"id":12379,"date":"2025-07-15T10:45:58","date_gmt":"2025-07-15T08:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/publicaciones\/informe-economico-y-financiero-37\/"},"modified":"2025-07-15T08:50:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T06:50:19","slug":"informe-economico-y-financiero-37","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/informe-economico-y-financiero-37\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero #37"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Esade publica cada sis mesos, amb el suport del Banc Sabadell, l\u2019Informe Econ\u00f2mic i Financera, que en aquesta ocasi\u00f3 celebra la seva 37a edici\u00f3. Amb ell, Esade mant\u00e9 la seva vocaci\u00f3 de contribuir al debat p\u00fablic a trav\u00e9s d\u2019un an\u00e0lisi rigor\u00f3s i plural que, com a escola de prestigi i amb la complicitat de tota la seva comunitat acad\u00e8mica, refor\u00e7a el comprom\u00eds amb el progr\u00e9s econ\u00f2mic i social.<\/p>\n<p>En el seu article de benvinguda, el director de l\u2019Informe i d\u2019EsadeEcPol, Toni Rold\u00e1n, posa de relleu com el 2025 marca un punt d\u2019inflexi\u00f3 en l\u2019ordre econ\u00f2mic mundial despr\u00e9s de tres d\u00e8cades de globalitzaci\u00f3 sota regles multilaterals. Destaca la fractura irreversible del sistema global \u2014accelerada per la reelecci\u00f3 de Donald Trump i la seva doctrina \u201cAmerica First\u201d\u2014 i la nova fase transaccional dels Estats Units, que tracta la Uni\u00f3 Europea com un rival comercial. Alhora, subratlla la posici\u00f3 relativament favorable d\u2019Espanya, amb un creixement del PIB estimat entre el 2,4\u202f% i el 2,6\u202f% per al 2025, recolzat pel vigor del consum intern, l\u2019impuls del turisme i un mercat laboral en m\u00ednims hist\u00f2rics; posa tamb\u00e9 de manifest l\u2019impuls de la immigraci\u00f3 i les energies renovables, tot advertint de riscos com el d\u00e8ficit p\u00fablic estructural, els desequilibris en el mercat de l\u2019habitatge i l\u2019exposici\u00f3 a nous aranzels estatunidencs.<\/p>\n<p>A continuaci\u00f3, la nota de conjuntura conjunta de Josep\u202fM. Comajuncosa i Manuel\u202fHidalgo examina primer l\u2019enfriament sincronitzat de l\u2019economia global \u2014amb el FMI revisant a la baixa les seves previsions al 2,4\u202f% per al 2025\u2014, la moderaci\u00f3 de<br \/>\nla inflaci\u00f3 despr\u00e9s de les tensions geopol\u00edtiques i financeres recents, i els estrets marges de maniobra fiscal i monetari. Seguidament, analitza l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 de l\u2019economia espanyola, que mant\u00e9 un creixement s\u00f2lid (2,3\u202f%\u20132,6\u202f% previst per al 2025), impulsat per l\u2019estalvi elevat de les llars, la bona salut financera del sector privat, el dinamisme exportador i el desplegament dels fons Next Generation UE, si b\u00e9 alerta dels reptes com la sostenibilitat del deute i la inversi\u00f3 p\u00fablica.<\/p>\n<p>A la secci\u00f3 \u201cEn debat\u201d, quatre articles ofereixen diferents punts de vista sobre el nou escenari econ\u00f2mic mundial:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Elina\u202fRibakova<\/strong>, a \u201cLa governan\u00e7a econ\u00f2mica mundial en turbul\u00e8ncia: decisions per a Europa\u201d, defensa aprofundir la Uni\u00f3 de Mercats de Capitals, llen\u00e7ar un euro digital, centralitzar la contractaci\u00f3 de defensa \u2014incloent-hi Ucra\u00efna\u2014 i completar la transici\u00f3 ecol\u00f2gica sense generar noves depend\u00e8ncies.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Federico\u202fSteinberg<\/strong>, a \u201cLa Uni\u00f3 Europea davant una segona administraci\u00f3 Trump\u201d, adverteix de la necessitat permanent de gestionar riscos transatl\u00e0ntics i proposa accelerar la uni\u00f3 banc\u00e0ria i fiscal, emetre eurobons per a la seguretat i la transici\u00f3 verda, i activar sense complexos l\u2019Instrument Anticoerci\u00f3.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Eduardo\u202fMorales<\/strong>, a \u201cLa nova pol\u00edtica comercial\u201d, analitza el gir proteccionista dels EUA i la UE, la proliferaci\u00f3 d\u2019aranzels i subvencions industrials, i els seus costos ocults i efectes en la productivitat.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Carolina\u202fVillegas<\/strong>, a \u201cReconfiguraci\u00f3 de les cadenes globals de valor davant les noves tensions comercials: adaptar-se en un m\u00f3n fragmentat\u201d, detalla com les empreses combinen estrat\u00e8gies China+1, nearshoring i friendshoring per diversificar prove\u00efdors i mitigar el risc de fragmentaci\u00f3 geoecon\u00f2mica.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Finalment, l\u2019informe conclou amb ressenyes d\u2019Antonio\u202fGarc\u00eda\u202fMaldonado sobre dos llibres recents:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Abundance. How We Build a Better Future<\/strong> d\u2019Ezra Klein i Derek Thompson, que denuncia la par\u00e0lisi reguladora que frena la innovaci\u00f3 i demana un Estat capa\u00e7 d\u2019impulsar projectes transformadors.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The Invisible Doctrine<\/strong> de George Monbiot i Peter Hutchison, que explora com el neoliberalisme ha socavat el contracte social i ha alimentat el malestar antipol\u00edtic que impulsa l\u00edders populistes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esade publica cada sis mesos, amb el suport del Banc Sabadell, l\u2019Informe Econ\u00f2mic i Financera, que en aquesta ocasi\u00f3 celebra la seva 37a edici\u00f3. Amb ell, Esade mant\u00e9 la seva vocaci\u00f3 de contribuir al debat p\u00fablic a trav\u00e9s d\u2019un an\u00e0lisi rigor\u00f3s i plural que, com a escola de prestigi i amb la complicitat de tota [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":12374,"template":"","yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Informe Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero #37 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/informe-economico-y-financiero-37\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Informe Econ\u00f3mico y Financiero #37 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Esade publica cada sis mesos, amb el suport del Banc Sabadell, l\u2019Informe Econ\u00f2mic i Financera, que en aquesta ocasi\u00f3 celebra la seva 37a edici\u00f3. 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