{"id":11263,"date":"2024-03-26T10:00:28","date_gmt":"2024-03-26T09:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/?post_type=publicaciones&p=11263"},"modified":"2026-09-16T17:10:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T15:10:35","slug":"macroinsights-06","status":"publish","type":"publicaciones","link":"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-06\/","title":{"rendered":"MacroInsights #06"},"content":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al mar\u00e7 de 2024.<\/p>\n

Conjuntura macro<\/strong><\/p>\n

El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB arribar\u00e0 al +0,8% el 1T24, i superar\u00e0 les expectatives de principis d\u2019any. Anticipem un creixement una mica m\u00e9s moderat el 2T24. La lectura provisional del primer semestre ja situa l\u2019avan\u00e7 en el +2,3% per al conjunt del 2024, si b\u00e9 persisteixen riscos notables en l\u2019\u00e0mbit dom\u00e8stic i internacional.<\/p>\n

Enfocament global<\/strong><\/p>\n

A un any del llan\u00e7ament de GPT-4, gr\u00e0cies als estudis que s\u2019han anat fent, ja podem calibrar l\u2019impacte de la IA generativa:
\nEntre un 60 i un 66% dels llocs de treball estan significativament exposats a les economies avan\u00e7ades. D\u2019aquests, segons l\u2019FMI, al voltant d\u2019un 35% tindria una complementarietat baixa, mentre que un 25% podria complementar millor les seves tasques amb la IA. Aquesta exposici\u00f3 \u00e9s m\u00e9s gran per als serveis professionals i les ocupacions pr\u00f2pies d\u2019aquests sectors (RH, legal, management, formaci\u00f3).<\/p>\n

La IA milloraria la productivitat (+12% a +37%) i la qualitat (+14% a +40%) en aquest tipus de tasques, segons els primers experiments fets en diverses empreses amb equips de treball al m\u00f3n real. Aquestes millores es concentren en els treballadors que partien amb menys experi\u00e8ncia o pitjors resultats.<\/p>\n

Perspectiva micro<\/strong><\/p>\n

Menys d\u2019un 10% de les empreses espanyoles de 10+ treballadors utilitzen algun tipus d\u2019IA, un percentatge que puja al 32,4% en el sector d\u2019informaci\u00f3 i comunicacions. Els models amb funcions ja presents abans del 2022 semblen m\u00e9s utilitzats que els de nova generaci\u00f3. Per avan\u00e7ar en la seva incorporaci\u00f3, l\u2019evid\u00e8ncia d\u2019experiments sobre el terreny suggereix:<\/p>\n

1. Centrar-se en els treballadors amb pitjors indicadors o menys experi\u00e8ncia pr\u00e8via.<\/p>\n

2. Aprofitar els models generals m\u00e9s avan\u00e7ats, com GPT-4, per\u00f2 adaptant-los als processos que ja han demostrat que funcionen.<\/p>\n

3. Dissenyar els nous processos de manera que serveixin als treballadors per aprendre i incorporar noves formes d\u2019executar les seves tasques.<\/p>\n

4. Plantejar models flexibles i adaptables, que s\u2019integrin en diferents maneres de treballar i subjectes al criteri \u00faltim del treballador.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al mar\u00e7 de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB arribar\u00e0 al +0,8% el 1T24, i superar\u00e0 les expectatives de principis d\u2019any. Anticipem un creixement una mica m\u00e9s moderat el 2T24. La […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":11260,"template":"","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMacroInsights #06 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/webecpol.esade.edu\/ca\/publicacions\/macroinsights-06\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"MacroInsights #06 - Center for Economic Policy - EsadeEcPol\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conjuntura macro, enfocament global i perspectiva micro per al mar\u00e7 de 2024. Conjuntura macro El RealTimeTracker, el nostre model de seguiment i pron\u00f2stic en temps real, estima que el creixement trimestral del PIB arribar\u00e0 al +0,8% el 1T24, i superar\u00e0 les expectatives de principis d\u2019any. Anticipem un creixement una mica m\u00e9s moderat el 2T24. 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