“Loss aversion and the effect of preventive envy will be key drivers of consumer behaviour on Black Friday this year,” predicted Pedro Rey, Associate Professor of Economics, Finance and Accounting at ESADE. Although the date of Black Friday is well-situated on the calendar, experts warn of a certain “wearout effect”. Prof. Rey commented: “Black Friday is no longer a unique, one-time-only event, since we’ve become saturated by so many other discount events, such as Cyber Monday, Chinese Singles’ Day and Christmas At Your Door. If there are sales every day, it means there are never really sales.” 

According to Prof. Rey, an expert on behavioural economics, these sorts of days are becoming a group ritual: “Consumers need to feel like they are a part of the event.” He added: “You find yourself obliged to shop so that you don’t feel like you’re paying full price, or that someone else is getting a better discount than you are.” Black Friday, he explained, plays with our “cognitive biases” and the feeling of “getting a bargain”. He observed: “We engage in self-suggestion, forgetting all the costs – monetary costs as well as time spent waiting in queues – but we feel good because we get a discount.” 

“The packages will arrive late” 

E-commerce continues to gain ground with respect to brick-and-mortar stores, although delivery times are another important factor affecting Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Experts noted that some operators found themselves “overwhelmed” last year. Jaume Hugas, Associate Professor of Operations, Innovation and Data Sciences at ESADE, predicted that more orders will be placed online this year, but that “deliveries will arrive late”. Spain has seen higher e-commerce growth than other European countries in the past two years, but the country “hasn’t developed the logistical capacity to be able to absorb this spike in sales,” he explained. 

Prof. Hugas predicted that the American sales model will gradually be adopted in Spain. “We expect online sales to increase, so initiatives like Cyber Monday will become more and more successful in Spain,” he noted. 

Data protection

This year also marks the first Black Friday since the new General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) came into force. According to Antonio Delgado, Assistant Professor in the Department of Law at ESADE, the big question is what will happen to the 80% of commercial databases that were “burned” after the bombardment of emails from companies requesting explicit consent to process personal data. “Many of those emails went unanswered,” noted Prof. Delgado, adding that companies that use personal data without consent would be running a risk. “This will have a direct impact when it comes to marketing campaigns trying to reach consumers, because the databases of commercial companies have been purged.” 

In any event, Prof. Delgado offered a prediction: “Companies will take the risk, so it’s necessary to have a good data renewal system to avoid getting hit with penalties.” He added: “But first, companies will have to carry out the reflection process required by the law. They will even have to apply a specific policy for commercial shipments.”